Houston, we have liftoff. The Houston Rockets are the hottest team in basketball and not just when it comes to winning games.
However, that hot steak will be put to the ultimate test when they visit arguably the best team in the Western Conference on Wednesday night — the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Luckily for the Rockets, the Thunder will be without NBA MVP odds candidate Shai Gilgeous Alexander, and the NBA odds have Houston as a slight road underdog.
I break down this intriguing Western Conference matchup and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Rockets vs. Thunder on Wednesday, March 27.
Rockets vs Thunder predictions
My best bet: Jalen Williams Under 24.5 points (-111 at Caesars)
It’s really hard to envision how the Oklahoma City Thunder will play without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in tonight’s matchup against the red-hot Houston Rockets. He’s only missed one game all season long to this point.
That said, it is easy to envision OKC struggling to get buckets without its MVP candidate against a Houston team playing its best basketball of the season.
The Rockets enter tonight’s matchup winners of nine in a row straight up while covering the spread an impressive 12 times in their last 13 games overall. Jalen Green has been on fire, Amen Thompson has broken out post-All-Star break while the team is still led by veterans Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks.
Now, a quick look at the Rockets' schedule during this winning streak reveals some less-than-stellar competition. But it’s fair to say Houston has not taken those opponents lightly, covering spreads of all sizes.
Besides, Houston hangs its hat on the defensive end of the floor and has done so all season long. That will be the reason why the Rockets will be able to keep this one close. Houston ranks eighth in defensive rating and fifth in opponent-effective field goal percentage this season.
SGA’s absence affects the NBA odds in a lot of ways in this one. First, the Thunder moved from -7 to -4.5. Something else that was adjusted was Jalen Williams' points prop. That’s a number that has closed at 18.5 the last few games and without Gilgeous-Alexander it’s bumped up a huge six points to 24.5.
Williams is the Thunder’s second-leading scorer at 19.3 points per game and should get a few more shots up tonight but he is suddenly without SGA’s playmaking, creativity, and just general percense that would take up a lot of Houston's defensive efforts. Now, he's the Rockets can hone in on him defensively.
While I like Williams as a player, this is a tough matchup, on a back-to-back no less and I believe his points prop has been over-adjusted. Take the Under.
Rockets vs Thunder same-game parlay
Jalen Williams Under 24.5 points
Fred VanVleet Over 17.5 points
Fred VanVleet Over 3.5 rebounds
No Shai-Gilgeous Alexander also means the Thunder will be without their best perimeter defender as well. That should open things up for Rockets guard Fred VanVleet.
Steady Freddy is averaging 16.8 points while shooting a solid 38.7% from beyond the arc this season. That’s up to 18.4 points and 42.4% over his last 16 games. His point total is sitting at 17.5. He’s gone Over that number 10 times during that period.
But that’s not all for Fred tonight. The Thunder are a really good basketball team but one area where they lack is on the glass. They own the NBA’s third-worst rebounding rate and give up the most rebounds per game to opposing guards.
VanVleet’s rebounding prop is sitting at 3.5. He averages 3.7 rebounds per game this season and has gone Over this number in just over half of his games this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rockets vs Thunder odds and trends
Rockets vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Houston +6.5 | Oklahoma City -6.5
- Moneyline: Houston +210 | Oklahoma City -260
- Over/Under: Over 230 | Under 230
Rockets vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Thunder had been bet up as high as -7 before the news broke that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was ruled out and the line got adjusted to OKC -4.5.
- OKC won and covered the previous two meetings as 10-point and 6.5-point favorites respectively. Houston did win the first meeting of the season as 1.5-point underdogs back in December. SGA played in all three games.
- The total has dropped 3.5 points with SGA out and now sits at 226.5. I'm not sure that's enough considering SGA's impact.
- Houston's improved offense has helped them cash the Over in seven of its last 10 games.
Rockets vs Thunder betting trend to know
The Rockets have covered the Spread in 40 of their last 68 games for +11.40 Units and a 15% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Thunder.
Rockets vs Thunder game info
| Location: | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date: | Wednesday, March 27, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports OK, Space City Home Network |
Not intended for use in MA.
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