The Western Conference Finals tip off on Wednesday with the Minnesota Timberwolves hosting the Dallas Mavericks as 4-point favorites. My NBA picks for today expect a heavy dose of superstar guard Luka Doncic as the Mavs try to crack this lockdown Minnesota defense.
See how I'm including a bet on Doncic with this same-game parlay for Mavericks vs. Timberwolves on May 22.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves parlay picks May 22
- Luka Doncic Over 28.5 points
- Rudy Gobert Under 1.5 blocks
- Karl-Anthony Towns Over 8.5 rebounds
(+700 at bet365)
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Best Mavericks vs Timberwolves parlay picks for Wednesday
NBA parlay pick
Luka Doncic Over 28.5 points
Rudy Gobert Under 1.5 blocks
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 8.5 rebounds
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The Minnesota Timberwolves' defense has been dominant and they did a great job of slowing down Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray in the last round. That said, they were also the best defensive team in the league during the regular season and still got torched by Luka Doncic.
Doncic played in two games against the T-Wolves this season and cooked them both times, scoring 39 points on 15-for-27 shooting in December before dropping 34 points on 12-for-26 shooting on Jan. 7. Doncic led the league in scoring with 33.9 ppg during the regular season and he's the kind of elite offensive player that can score on anybody.
With Doncic's sky-high usage rate and the Dallas Mavericks so reliant on him to ignite their offense, he should eclipse his points total even if he's less efficient than usual.
That Mavs offense is just 25th in attacking the rim frequency and 28th in post-up frequency per ShotQualityBets. That gives fewer opportunities to contest shots in the paint which has led to Dallas having the second-lowest opponent block rate in the league. Rudy Gobert is one of the best shot blockers in the league but he's gone below 1.5 blocks in six of his last 10 games and didn't have a single swat in four of those contests.
While Gobert hasn't been blocking many shots, he has been thriving on the boards. However, his high rebounding numbers haven't been cutting into the production of Karl-Anthony Towns.
Towns has grabbed at least 12 boards in four of his last six games and that was against a Denver frontcourt featuring Jokic and Aaron Gordon. KAT should be even better on the glass against a Mavs squad that was just 26th in the league in rebounding rate during the regular season.
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