Bam Adebayo and the Miami Heat will make the trip to TD Garden to face Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics in an elimination game, and we have searched through the NBA odds to find you the best bet for tonight's matchup.
My Heat vs. Celtics predictions weigh Miami's chances at delivering an even bigger upset than it did in last year's playoffs, or whether it's Cancun time for Adebayo & Co.
Find out which bet I'm backing in my free NBA picks on Wednesday, May 1.
Heat vs Celtics predictions
My best bet
Jayson Tatum Under 27.5 points (-120 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
First off, it's worth noting all of the injuries plaguing both sides entering Game 5. Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier are both still out for the Miami Heat, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. will also be out after playing in Game 4. These are all key players, and it's why the Boston Celtics are trading as a 14.5-point favorite.
The Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis, who will miss several games with a calf injury. This injury is significant for our bet because it's one of the reasons we're seeing a probability gap in Jayson Tatum's points prop we can exploit.
Tatum is trading with a total of 27.5 points, which is one point higher than we have seen for him in this series. Tatum has gone Under the total of 26.5 in three of his four games against the Heat, which would typically force this number to drop. But with Porzingis out, we're able to buy a 27.5 on Tatum because the expectation is his usage will be higher.
However, there is obvious blowout potential, which could cause Tatum to see decreased minutes, making it extremely difficult for him to get Over 27.5. But the main reason I like the Under is because Tatum is simply the focus of the Heat defense, and they have individual defenders who are very tough on him.
Caleb Martin and Haywood Highsmith have been Tatum's primary defenders, and they have Bam Adebayo's rim protection anchoring the defense behind them. I've seen multiple plays in this series where Martin has correctly anticipated Tatum's next move and stopped him from getting a shot. Martin is physical and can move his feet with Tatum. It's almost as if Martin ate, slept, and breathed Tatum film from the entire regular season in preparation for this matchup.
Even if the Celtics can generate switches for Tatum, the Heat have other players who can be disruptive to his offensive game. Do you want to shoot over the 6-foot-10 Nikola Jovic? I wouldn't. The only way the Heat can remain competitive in this game is by controlling the pace and hanging their hat on solid team defense, and Tatum is the focal point of that game plan. Tatum will still score some points — he will probably score in the 20s — but 27.5 is too much when other Celtics will have an offensive advantage that he does not.
Tatum is projected to score 25.1 points, allowing us to price the Under 27.5 points at -177, but can be had at -120 at DraftKings.
Heat vs Celtics same-game parlay (SGP)
Jayson Tatum Under 27.5 points
Jayson Tatum Under 2.5 threes
Jaylen Brown Over 2.5 assists
If my best bet is Tatum Under 27.5 points, I think you can see why I am interested in also using his Under 2.5 threes in our SGP. If Tatum isn't knocking down shots from beyond the arc, he isn't going Over this number at 27.5 because Adebayo's rim protection will disrupt his shots at the rim.
Jaylen Brown's Over 2.5 assists prop doesn't correlate to the Under on Tatum's points, but I'm including it in our SGP because it is a player prop that I played a straight bet on as well. If you want to learn more about why I'm betting Brown Over 2.5 assists, there's a full breakdown in my NBA player props for Wednesday, May 1 here at Covers.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Heat vs Celtics odds
Heat vs Celtics live odds
Get the latest Heat vs Celtics NBA playoff odds for Game 5.
Heat vs Celtics opening odds
- Spread: Miami +13.5 | Boston -13.5
- Moneyline: Miami +730 | Boston -1150
- Over/Under: Over 200.5 | Under 200.5
Heat vs Celtics spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread opened at FanDuel with the Celtics trading as a 13.5-point favorite, and despite Porzingis's injury, we have seen the number move slightly toward Boston to make it a 14-point favorite.
- Make sure to shop around before hitting the button on a side because we are seeing a bunch of Celtics -14 and Celtics -14.5 in the market.
- The total opened at FanDuel at 200.5 and is now trading half a point lower at 200.
- We did see the total dip below 200 to 198.5 at FanDuel, but support for the Over moved the line back to 200.
Heat vs Celtics trend
The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 50 away games (+24.10 Units / 35% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Celtics.
Heat vs Celtics game info
| Location: | TD Garden, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-1-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Heat vs Celtics latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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