The Boston Red Sox exploded for eight runs Wednesday to knot their three-game series with the Cleveland Guardians.
Today, Red Sox righty Chase Anderson takes the hill in their rubber match on April 25 as a heavy MLB odds underdog against Guardians right-hander Triston McKenzie.
Can the Red Sox pull off the upset? Join me as I break this one down with free MLB picks and Red Sox vs Guardians predictions.
Red Sox vs Guardians prediction
My best bet
Triston McKenzie Under 5.5 strikeouts (+125 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Cleveland Guardians starter Triston McKenzie missed most of last season dealing with shoulder and elbow issues and hasn’t regained the big bender that helped earn him 190 punchouts in 2022.
McKenzie opted out of surgery last season and is pitching with a torn ligament in his elbow. As a result, his strikeouts are way down from his nine-per-nine 2022 tallies.
The Guardians righties' lack of movement on his curveball has been the culprit; he had great whiff and put away numbers with the bender in 2022, but that pitch lacks the same movement as it did then.
His ineffective curveball forces McKenzie to use his four-seamer and slider more often, which has led to his lowest strikeout (5.5) and highest walks per nine (7.5) across his brief career. That won’t help him clear 5.5 strikeouts today against the Boston Red Sox.
McKenzie particularly has issues with left-handed lumber; they’ve tuned him up for three bombs and eight earned runs. Without the bender, he has only five punchouts across 11.1 frames against lefties, and he’ll see at least five lefty sticks Thursday afternoon.
Finally, it will be a chilly day in Cleveland. McKenzie had issues getting loose in the chilly early-season games; similar conditions are on tap today. His four-seamer/slider combo has lost some velocity, and his curveball isn’t bailing him out. He’s forced to go to the four-seamer more often, and that pitch has been sailing on him, so the chilly conditions might worsen matters. He has failed to clear 5.5 strikeouts in three of his four starts; he’ll have difficulties against most of Boston’s lineup and won’t strike out more than 5.5 today.
Red Sox vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Triston McKenzie Under 5.5 strikeouts
Steven Kwan Total hits Over 0.5
Josh Naylor Total Hits Over 0.5
Boston will likely deploy a bullpen game, which bodes well for Guardians OF Steven Kwan and 1B/DH Josh Naylor.
Kwan leads the team in hits (35) and has one hit in three of his last five–he’s also recorded 11 hits over 34 at-bats against the Red Sox staff. Naylor had a 10-game hitting streak snapped last night and has 11 hits in 33 career at-bats against the current Boston pitchers.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Guardians odds
Red Sox vs Guardians live odds
Red Sox vs Guardians opening odds
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-160) | Cleveland -1.5 (+135)
- Moneyline: Boston +135 | Cleveland -160
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)
Red Sox vs Guardians spread and Over/Under analysis
- Money has come in on Boston with odds from +125 to +135 across the markets.
- Over markets are reporting 7.5 runs priced from -105 to -115, with Under markets hanging -115 odds at most US shops.
- McKenzie averages 87.7 adjusted pitches per outing this season.
Red Sox vs Guardians trend
Triston McKenzie has failed to clear 5.5 strikeouts in three of his last four starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Guardians
Red Sox vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Thursday, 4-25-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, Bally Ohio |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Brayan Bello (3-1, 3.04 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Triston McKenzie (2-2, 5.00 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Guardians latest injuries
Red Sox vs Guardians weather
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