The Texas Rangers and Philadelphia Phillies are set to square off on May 22 for the second outing of a three-game set in Philly.
Bryce Harper has been clobbering baseballs recently, and my Rangers vs. Phillies prediction expects him to clear his 1.5 total bases mark. Find out why in my MLB picks below.
Rangers vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 total bases (-115 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Tonight marks the return of starting pitcher Dane Dunning, who had been out since early May with a strained rotator cuff on his throwing shoulder. The righty is going to have a heck of a time returning against one of the best batting lineups in the MLB.
The Philadelphia Phillies are among the leaders in the NL in every major batting category, including ranking first in batting average, third in home runs, third in total bases, and third in SLG. The main catalyst for the success has been Bryce Harper, an MLB MVP odds contender this season.
Harper has been mashing with a team-leading .742 SLG and 11 dingers, third-most in the NL. This month, he’s batting .359 with a 1.111 OPS while adding five homers and 18 RBI. He’s averaging 2.25 total bases per game in May and 1.9 per game on the season.
With Harper’s bat as hot as ever, Dunning could find himself in trouble quickly. Not only is he back from injury, but his pitches don’t exactly match up well with Harper.
Dunning has four pitches he uses more than 10% of the time, his sinker (35.8%), slider (25.8%), cutter (18.4%), and changeup (11.8%). Well, Harper’s favorite pitch this year has been the sinker.
He’s batting .467 with a .833 SLG and run value of seven against them: it’s by far his best pitch to hit this year. But it doesn’t end there, he’s got a .576 SLG against sliders, a .455 average and .727 SLG against cutters, and a .542 SLG against changeups.
Harper is smashing all four pitches, and it’s not as if Dunning isn’t struggling himself. He has a 4.10 ERA this season and has gone six innings just twice in seven starts. He’s allowed seven home runs across 37 1/3 innings, and that was before he hurt his throwing shoulder.
Rangers vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 total bases
Alec Bohm Over 1.5 total bases
Marcus Semien Over 1.5 total bases
While Harper has been the Phillies' muscle this year, Alec Bohm has been the perfect contact-hitting complement. He leads Philadelphia in hits, batting average, doubles, and total bases, and he’s also got a SLG of .500 or better against two of Dunning’s top four pitches.
If Dunning’s going to be in for a rough evening, Texas will need Marcus Semien, their most consistent hitter, to step up. Semien tops Texas in hits, doubles, and total bases. He’ll be up against Phillies pitcher Taijuan Walker and hits better than .300 against two of his top pitches.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rangers vs Phillies odds
Rangers vs Phillies live odds
Rangers vs Phillies opening odds
- Run line: Texas +1.5 (-165) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+140)
- Moneyline: Texas +120 | Philadelphia -140
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+100) | Under 9.5 (-120)
Rangers vs Phillies spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Phillies opened as a -135 to -150 moneyline favorite at home, with most books sitting between -135 and -145 as first pitch approaches.
- The Rangers have had a bit of a championship hangover to start the year with a 24-24 record, while Philadelphia is off to a blazing start at 34-14.
- The Over/Under opened at 9.5 and hasn’t seen much movement.
- The Phillies are among the best Over teams in the MLB at 24-22-3, but Texas is one of the worst at 20-28-1.
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Rangers vs Phillies trend
The Phillies have hit the team total Over in 28 of their last 32 games (+23.60 Units / 61% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Phillies
Rangers vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-22-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southwest, NBCS-Philadelphia |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Dane Dunning (3-2 4.10 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Taijuan Walker (3-0, 4.91 ERA) |
Rangers vs Phillies latest injuries
Rangers vs Phillies weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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