The surging New York Mets (12-8) go for the sweep on Sunday afternoon against the slumping Los Angeles Dodgers (12-11).
According to the MLB odds, the Dodgers are -250 on the moneyline while the total resides at 9.
I’m targeting one side’s team total Over in this series finale. Read on for my full MLB picks and Mets vs. Dodgers predictions on Sunday, April 21.
Mets vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Dodgers team total Over 5.5 (+102 at FanDuel)
My analysis
As the New York Mets go for the sweep, they’ll send veteran right-hander Adrian Houser to the mound. He’s posted a 4.70 ERA so far this season and his 5.14 xERA is not what I would consider the prettiest picture in the world.
He’s been unable to fool batters, posting an absurdly low 13.2% K-rate. He’s also struggled with his command — his 14.7% walk rate is evidence that he’s actually walking more batters than he is striking out. Not great, Bob.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have gone ice-cold overall, losing seven of their last nine games. That’s caused public perception in the market to dip to a new low, but let’s not get it twisted — this is still one of the best teams in the MLB and a threat to win it all come postseason time.
The lineup has posted a 115 wRC+ and a .340 wOBA against right-handed pitching, both of which are Top 5 in the league. The bottom of the lineup has been notably unproductive this year, but Dave Roberts can put a power-hitting Toescar Hernandez in the six-hole while recent call-up Andy Pages figures to provide an upgrade in the outfield once he’s up to speed.
The Dodgers’ main weakness at the dish has been their proclivity for getting punched out — their 26.4% K-rate against righties is the sixth-highest in the MLB. That’s not as much of a concern against Houser, who last posted a K-rate above 20% back in 2019.
Another reason to like the Dodgers’ offensive outlook on Sunday is that the weather calls for sustained winds of 9.2 mph blowing out to right field. Dodgers home games have trended toward the Over, going 10-3-1 O/U in the last 14 home games.
I fancy the Dodgers’ chances of scoring plenty of runs considering their matchup against a strikeout-inept Houser, the weather forecast with strong winds blowing out, and the team’s strong offensive production when playing at home. Give me their team total Over as today’s best bet.
Mets vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Dodgers team total Over 5.5
Shohei Ohtani 2+ total bases
Mookie Betts 2+ total bases
If the Dodgers are going to find success at the plate, their two biggest stars are likely going to be contributors. Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts both have favorable matchups against Houser and I’ll bet on them hitting for 2+ total bases.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Dodgers odds
Mets vs Dodgers live odds
Mets vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 | Los Angeles -1.5
- Moneyline: New York +209 | Los Angeles -232
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Mets vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Although the Mets have a six-game winning streak and the Dodgers are 2-7 in their last nine games, the market still values the home team. After opening at -180, L.A. is up to -250 or higher at most shops.
- The Mets are 6-2 away from home this season.
- Both teams have trended toward the Over — New York is 11-9 O/U while L.A. is 14-8 O/U.
Mets vs Dodgers trend
The Dodgers have gone 10-3-1 O/U in their last 14 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Dodgers
Mets vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, 4-21-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | WPIX, Sportsnet LA |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Adrian Houser (0-1, 4.70 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Tyler Glasnow (3-1, 3.72 ERA) |
Mets vs Dodgers latest injuries
Mets vs Dodgers weather
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