The San Francisco Giants and Boston Red Sox begin a three-game series at Fenway Park on Tuesday night. The Giants send ace Logan Webb to the mound as they try to improve to .500, but the Red Sox haven't been an easy team to beat this year having won six of their last nine.
MLB odds have San Francisco installed as a -130 road favorite for this interleague matchup with the O/U at 8. Here are my best free Giants vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, April 30.
Giants vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Logan Webb Over 18.5 outs (+120 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Boston Red Sox entered this season with low expectations but they are three games above .500. That said, their success has largely been due to some terrific pitching and their bats have been far less impressive.
Boston is starting Cooper Criswell tonight and the 27-year-old was shaky coming out of Tampa Bay's bullpen last year (5.73 ERA in 33 innings). The Red Sox inked him to a one-year deal expecting him to be a reliever but with injuries to Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock, and Nick Pivetta, they've plugged him into the rotation. Criswell has pitched well, posting a 2.38 ERA in 11 1/3 innings, but his xERA (3.63), small sample size, and history make him tough to count on as a starter.
For that reason, I'm looking to the San Francisco Giants veteran starter Logan Webb for my best bet. Webb has a 2.33 ERA through six starts and has logged at least seven innings in each of his last four outings. The workhorse was fifth in the majors in innings pitched last season (216) and had a sparking 3.25 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP.
The Red Sox exploded for 17 runs last Saturday against the Cubs but their lineup has struggled with consistency. They are 20th in the majors in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity while ranking 26th in strikeout rate. They've been worse at home, where they have an OPS of just .690 and could also be missing a couple of key hitters with Triston Casas sidelined by a rib injury and Matasaka Yoshida listed as questionable.
With the exception of an ugly outing against the Dodgers, Webb has posted a quality start in every other game he's played in this year, so don't expect him to get chased early. The O/U for Webb's innings is set at 18.5, which he has eclipsed in 25 of his last 36 starts. With the Over paying out at plus money, grab it against a Red Sox squad that has struggled to score at home.
Giants vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Logan Webb Over 18.5 outs
Logan Webb Under 2.5 earned runs
Jorge Soler Under 0.5 RBI
Since I'm expecting Webb to pitch more than six innings in this contest, it makes sense to also take the Under 2.5 on his earned runs. He's allowed fewer than 2.5 earned runs in 12 of his last 17 starts and has given up just one run in his last three outings.
Jorge Soler has gone Over 0.5 RBI just twice in his last 13 games. He's batting a mere .216 this season with that number plummeting to .125 in 24 at-bats with runners in scoring position.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Giants vs Red Sox odds
Giants vs Red Sox live odds
Giants vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: San Francisco -1.5 (+125) | Boston +1.5 (-150)
- Moneyline: San Francisco -130 | Boston -130
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Giants vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- The moneyline hasn't moved off the opening number but the total has shifted from 8.5 to 8 with the Over at -120.
- The Red Sox are 6-3 in their last nine games, with five of those victories coming at plus money.
- Boston shockingly has the lowest ERA in the majors at 2.68 thanks to the play of starters Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Brayan Bello, and Garrett Whitlock.
- The Giants are 7-4 in their last 11 games overall and they've gone 4-0 in Webb's last four starts.
Giants vs Red Sox trend
The Red Sox have hit the F5 Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.49 Units / 34% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Red Sox
Giants vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-30-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSBA, NESN+ |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Logan Webb (3-1, 2.33 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Cooper Criswell (1-1, 2.38 ERA) |
Giants vs Red Sox latest injuries
Giants vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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