Braves vs Phillies Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Pitchers Come Out Slinging

The MLB season opener between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies has been delayed due to rain, so baseball fans will have to wait until Friday for this marquee matchup between NL East rivals. This should be a terrific tilt between a pair of World Series contenders who squared off in the NLDS last year.

It will also be a pitching duel between two of the best arms in the game with Spencer Strider facing off against Zack Wheeler. MLB odds have Atlanta installed as a -125 road favorite with the Over/Under at 7.5. Here are my free MLB picks for the Braves vs. Phillies on March 29. 

Braves vs Phillies odds

Braves vs Phillies predictions

Spencer Strider is the favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award (+450) while Zack Wheeler has the second-best odds at +800.

The 24-year-old Strider is just starting to scratch his vast potential and he went 20-5 last year with a 3.09 expected ERA and a 2.85 FIP. He led the majors with an incredible 36.3% strikeout rate which was nearly five percentage points higher than the second-best pitcher.

With his ability to make batters miss, he should be able to mow down a Philadelphia Phillies lineup that was in the Bottom 10 of the majors in strikeout rate and whiff rate in 2023.

Wheeler posted a 3.61 ERA in 32 starts last season which was actually the first time since 2019 he finished with an ERA above 3.00. His FIP (3.15) and xERA (3.18) were significantly better and more in line with his career numbers. The veteran had excellent peripheral numbers ranking in the Top 15th percentile in barrel rate, average exit velocity, and walk rate.

Although both of these teams also have dangerous lineups, they struggled to hit against these aces in 2023. 

In four regular season starts against Philly last season, Strider had a 2.42 ERA with a .192 OBA and 38 strikeouts through 26 innings. He was also sharp against the Phillies in the NLDS, allowing four runs and fanning 15 batters across 12 2-3 innings, but he ate a couple of losses due to a lack of run support. 

Wheeler had one rough start against Atlanta last September but was lights out in his three other outings vs. the Braves. He threw an eight-inning shutout against Atlanta in May, pitched six innings of one-run ball against it in September, and had a sterling performance in the NLDS where he fanned 10 batters and allowed two runs on just three hits.

The talented arms for these teams don't end there. While relief pitching is notoriously tricky to predict on a season-by-season basis, the bullpens for these sides enter this season with the highest projected WAR numbers in the majors per FanGraphs. Expect a low-scoring pitchers duel between these rivals and bet the Under. 

My best bet: Under 7.5 (-115 at SIA)

Braves vs Phillies same-game parlay

Zack Wheeler Under 1.5 walks

Marcell Ozuna Under 0.5 runs

J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 runs

+325 at bet365

Wheeler has excellent control and last year he was in the Top 10th percentile in walk rate while ranking sixth in the majors with 1.7 walks per nine innings. Across 37 regular season and postseason starts, he walked more than 1.5 batters just nine times.

Wheeler also has a history of shutting down Braves slugger Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna has gone just 9-for-50 at the plate with a slugging percentage of just .300 and 19 strikeouts in his career against Wheeler.

Similarly, Strider has owned Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto, who has just three hits with a slugging percentage of .200 in 20 career at bats against the Braves phenom. If those guys can't get on base, they're not going to score.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Braves vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis

• When odds for opening day first dropped the Braves were -135 road favorites before money came in on home side, slimming their ML price to -125 .
• The O/U opened at 7.5 and was juiced towards the Over at -120, but while the total is still at 7.5 the Under is now at -120 at most books.
• Oddsmakers have set Atlanta's win total for this season at a whopping 101.5 — the second-highest number in the majors. Philadelphia's win total is at 89.5.
• The Phillies beat the Braves three games to one in last year's NLDS but the Braves took the regular season series with an 8-5 record.

Trend to know

The Phillies have hit the moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies

Braves vs Phillies game info

Starting pitchers

Spencer Strider RHP (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Strider was the runner-up for NL Rookie of the Year in 2022 and put together another stellar season in 2023. He led the majors in wins (20) and strikeouts (281) while ranking second in FIP (2.85). That said, he did wear down towards the end of the regular season and saw his ERA balloon to 5.67 over his last six starts.

Zack Wheeler RHP (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Wheeler finished sixth in the NL Cy Young race last year after going 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 212 punchouts through 192 innings. He has a 3.06 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP over 101 starts over the last four years. 

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