There are generally fireworks when the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets meet, but our Braves vs. Mets prediction doubts that’ll be the case this afternoon with starters Max Fried and Christian Scott on the bump today.
Fried is the MLB odds favorite, but both pitching staffs should benefit from two clubs struggling to score runs, so our MLB picks will focus on the total for this May 11 clash between the Braves and Mets.
Braves vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Today’s matchup between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets features two offenses that haven’t scored many runs recently.
The two longtime NL East rivals combined for 46 runs in their three-game April series in Atlanta, but neither lineup has been able to light up the scoreboard recently. That trend should continue today with Braves lefty Max Fried and Mets righty Christian Scott on the hill.
Fried is slowly finding his form after an injury-riddled 2023 campaign; the velocity on his four-seamer hasn’t returned, but it’s effective enough alongside a curveball/slider combo.
The result is fewer strikeouts, but Fried will accept that because of the 67% groundball rate and fewer than one home run per nine frames the trifecta produces.
Fried has been successful against this Mets lineup throughout his career and should be again today. The Mets don’t strike out much against lefties but don’t walk much either. New York boasts the 16th-best OBP against southpaws but hits only .238 with runners in scoring position (RISP) overall.
That will leave it up to the Mets rookie righty to keep his club in the game, and I believe Scott can. Scott’s sample size is small but encouraging; he fanned six with only one walk and an earned run across 6 2/3 away frames on the bump at Tampa Bay.
Scott could catch a break today. The Braves' offense is potent, but they aren’t scoring runs away from Truist Park. The Braves strand 3.33 RISP because they are hitting .245 in that situation, and I don’t see that changing today against the “rooks” sweeper and the Mets’ highly effective bullpen.
The respective bullpens will finish the job, and this one ends Under the total
Braves vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Jeff McNeil to get a hit
Matt Olson to get a hit
While I expect the pitching to outperform the hitters today, Mets 2B Jeff McNeil and Braves 1B Matt Olson have good matchups that can’t be overlooked.
McNeil has a hit in three of his previous five, and his history against Fried (10-28, .357) suggests he’ll notch at least one hit today.
Mets rookie Scott hasn’t faced Olson yet but has struggled against left-handed lumber. The Braves slugger is riding a four-game hitting streak, has always hit righties well, and should get one hit today.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Braves vs Mets odds
Braves vs Mets live odds
Braves vs Mets opening odds
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+114) | New York +1.5 (-135)
- Moneyline: Atlanta -155 | New York +130
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-120)
Braves vs Mets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Braves backers hit the opening -155 moneyline hard, with Atlanta trading anywhere from -155 to -168.
- The Mets are trading from a low of +125 to +142 mainly because New York is 9-11 SU and 2-3 across their last five at Citi Field.
- Over markets opened as high as 8.0 (+100) but are trading Over 7.5 from +100 to -105.
- Under-market openings under 8.0 (-120) were hit hard, with a consensus Under 7.5 with odds from -115 to -120.
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Braves vs Mets trend
The Under is 4-0 in the Braves' last four road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Mets
Braves vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Flushing, Queens |
| Date: | Saturday, 5-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Max Fried (2-1, 4.23 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Christian Scott (0-0, 1.35 ERA) |
Braves vs Mets latest injuries
Braves vs Mets weather
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