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Oops I didn't see there already was an in-game thread. |
KempDunkLister | 3 |
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Predicting lower scoring than Vikings/Bengals, 20-13 feels about right, I think Trubisky will make some bad decisions and Colts win a grinder. |
KempDunkLister | 3 |
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Mitch is going to throw this game away for the Steelers. He'll make head scratching turnovers and the Colts will capitalize in a grindy game. |
KempDunkLister | 1 |
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Squeeked out the ML win but losing DJ Reader on the first drive really hurt the run D, and Chandler was a better RB than I expected. Wacky game happy to get the W. |
KempDunkLister | 7 |
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It's called The Brotherly Shove and not The Twin City Winner for a reason. |
KempDunkLister | 75 |
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Vikings -400, Bengals +300 live after that shoestring grab TD. Bengals need a TD asap or this game is over. |
KempDunkLister | 75 |
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When are these KR going to figure out that 25 yard line with no risk of penalty/turnover is not a bad result for a kickoff. |
KempDunkLister | 75 |
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Mullens throws 3 first half interceptions, but one was dropped. He looked about this bad in the preseason when the Eagles cut him before the season in 2021. He's the only thing keeping the Bengals in the game. |
KempDunkLister | 75 |
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Bengals lose their primary run stuffer on the 1st series ouch. My Bengals ML bet looking bad so far. |
KempDunkLister | 75 |
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Taking Bengals moneyline as Jake Browning has been looking good and Nick Mullens isn't much, 5-12 as a starter, -3 career rushing yards, and the guy the Eagles cut in 2021 after a horrible preseason. Vikings also basically on their 4th string RB after they let Cook go, Mattison out, Akers out, Chandler is pedestrian. Bengals have their #1 RB Mixon and preferred #2 RB Chase Brown is finally healthy and contributing. Vikings pretty good on the road and play pretty good defense. Mostly boils down to Bengals healthier on OL and RB, Bengals at home, Bengals with the better backup QB. ML because 20-17, 24-21, 27-24 all definitely in play here. Prediction - Bengals 24, Vikings 17. |
KempDunkLister | 7 |
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UTEP defense is pretty horrid. They gave up 18 yards on a QB run on a broken play. NM State should be up 20-7 already. |
Mapleman74 | 14 |
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Or not! Don't be sly Michaels I think you can talk about the point spread now bro! |
KempDunkLister | 12 |
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You know it's coming. |
KempDunkLister | 12 |
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@TRAIN69 I hear ya but I got some good bets in, -5 SF now -8.5, -210 SF now -400 ML, SF team total over 21.5 now 23. Yes it is still gambling. The majority of my bet is on SF ML, but hey if PJ Walker beats the 49ers I can say I was part of a Disney movie. |
KempDunkLister | 31 |
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This is copied directing from Billy Walters new book. The idea is that if you can get a moneyline number at a certain point spread that is better than the numbers shown here, then the moneyline is the better play. If not take the point spread. So for example if you can get -160 or +145 on a 3 point spread, it is better EV to take the moneyline. This is versus -110, of course you have to take -105 and -115 into consideration. Moneyline Calculator 1 -116 +102 |
KempDunkLister | 2 |
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49ers just dropped 42 on the Cowboys who had the #1 scoring defense in the NFL at 10.3ppg entering week 5, while resting their starters in the 4th quarter. So the Browns defense is twice as good as the Cowboys? I don't think so. No one has held 49ers balanced attack under 30 this season, and while the Browns may do so I still think they come in at 24-27 minimum. You have to consider with practice squad PJ Walker at QB, who has no live game reps with Browns, not even preseason the Browns have to be good for 7-8 punts and probably 1-2 turnovers on their side of the field. This team total wants to say the 49ers can't manage 2 TDs and 3 FGs. This game feels like 28-10, 31-13 to me. |
KempDunkLister | 7 |
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Apparently now if Watson does not play the starter will be PJ Walker and not DTR. I'd say he is a bit of an improvement over DTR since he is a veteran but he's a marginal 53 man roster guy. |
KempDunkLister | 31 |
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49ers juggernaut playing mistake free football bringing things that travel (defense, running game) to Clevleland who you have to consider a pretty big mess. Cleveland defensive stats pumped up by outings vs low ranked offenses of Bengals, Steelers and Titans. The Ravens average+ offense put up four TDs on them. Deshaun Watson has already missed both Monday and Tuesday practices. Low character guy with a huge guaranteed contract, he already bailed on his team vs Ravens when cleared to play. If he does return to practice and play he'd probably play two series, look bad maybe take a hard sack or throw an INT and grab his shoulder and bail on his team again. I like DTR from his college days but against a top D with no Nick Chubb and injuries on the offensive line I think he would have another bad game just like he did vs the Ravens. I myself loaded up on ML last night at -210 although I did take some -5 action as well. In Billy Walters new book there is a point spread to moneyline conversion chart, and it say for a 5 point spread anything better than -237 is better bet than the points, and I figure that guy knows a lot more than me so I put it to use. -210 is considered fair to a -4 point spread. Maybe this is the ultimate sucker/Joe Public bet but I took the bait. I don't think the 49ers will go undefeated but I do not think the banged up Watson or DTR led Browns are going to be the team to knock them off. |
KempDunkLister | 31 |
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You could hedge Rams money line, but I wouldn't take it at -175, money will come in on 49ers, take it at something more like -150, then if you want guaranteed gains, do something like: 1200 to win 800 on Rams, if Rams win you get +650 since you will lose your 100 and 50 dollar bets. If 49ers win you win 800 (2000 - 1200 bet on Rams) and your Super Bowl bet is still alive. Then you could place a different money line hedge bet for the Super Bowl. I'm not saying it is a great bet or that you have to go that big, but if you wanted to get money out I think that's what you would do. If the money line does come down to -150 as I expect, you could insure that you at least get your 150 back by putting 225 to win 150 on the Rams. Bet more if you want to insure that you'll get a bigger return either way.
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Killer_B | 14 |
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I've actually looked at a couple of Bills message boards and they are all bitching that he didn't squib or at lease kick a high kick that came down at around the 5 yard line. |
Mangowoman | 25 |
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