If DeShaun Watson were a comic book superhero, he’d be Daredevil – Marvel’s “Man Without Fear”. If he had a theme song, it would be Bone Crusher’s 2003 club thumper, “Never Scared”. And if Watson played his football in the early 90’s, he’d be sponsored by “No Fear” (remember those shirts?).
The Houston Texans’ first-year quarterback (I refuse to call this guy a “rookie”) has nerves of steel. That fearlessness was forged under the pressure of two runs at the national title while at Clemson, losing a close game to Alabama in 2016 and then stunning the mighty Crimson Tide in 2017 – like Rocky Balboa losing a decision to Apollo Creed then defeating the champ in the rematch.
Watson, who had gone toe-to-toe with Nick Saban twice in college, faced the NFL’s version of the Crimson Tide – the New England Patriots – last Sunday. And with sportsbooks stacking the odds against Watson and the Texans (14-point underdogs/+750 on the moneyline), the 22-year-old QB nearly knocked off New England in Foxborough.
He posted a passer rating of 104.2 in the 36-33 loss (note that one of his two interceptions came on a prayer at the end of the game), threw for 301 yards (22 for 33), two touchdowns, and added 41 yards on the ground. Against the Patriots. In Gillette Stadium. In just his second true NFL start.
For his third career start, the unwavering Watson and the Texans host AFC South rival Tennessee, with oddsmakers giving Houston 2.5 points inside NRG Stadium. This is a big game for the franchise, which couldn’t get a win in an emotional Week 1 home stand against Jacksonville following the devastation of Hurricane Harvey (a game in which Watson was thrown to the wolves in the second half after Tom Savage dug a 0-19 hole).
The next challenge facing Watson is Titans' famed defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau, who’s been rougher on rookie QBs than Belichick and the Patriots - and that's saying something. He’s going to throw a lot of smoke and mirrors at the first-year passer and try to force mistakes.
But Watson will have plenty of chances to figure it out, thanks to a Texans pass rush that throws four legit QB killers - Jadeveon Clowney, Whitney Mercilus, J.J. Watt, and Benardrick McKinney - at the opposing offensive line. Tennessee’s scoring attack is terribly sporadic and has yet to put together a complete effort.
If the spread is any indication, this will be a close game. And when the pressure is at its highest and fear would get the best of most "rookies", Watson will feel right at home with the ball in his hands.
Pick: Houston +2.5
New Orleans Saints vs. Miami Dolphins (+3, 49.5)
Nothing will push a pointspread a field goal in the other direction like a loss to the Jets. That’s where we find Miami, coming off a 20-6 beat down from Gang Green and facing the Saints as a 3-point underdog in London, England on Sunday. On the surface, that loss looks bad. And digging down a little deeper, it looks even worse. But let’s not forget the Dolphins are a week behind schedule.
Miami had its Week 1 game with Tampa Bay bumped to Week 11, evacuated the entire team and support staff – and their families – to Los Angeles during Hurricane Irma, and were playing back-to-back road games with plenty of distractions hanging over their heads upon returning from the West Coast. In sports, you sometimes have what are called “Throw Away Games”: a game in which everything goes wrong, despite the best plans, and you’re best to just throw it away and focus on the next one. That loss to the Jets qualifies.
Now, the Fins find themselves making a mighty pilgrimage again, this time hopping the pond to play at Wembley Stadium in Week 4. That has Miami playing three games in three different time zones (more than 15,600 total miles) - a NFL first. However, this is the third time the Dolphins have played in the UK and the front office and coaching staff have a strict plan in place, in terms of eating, sleeping and recovery from jet lag.
Another reason why I like the Dolphins in London is that the early forecast is calling for rain for Wembley, which has covered stands but not a covered field. The soccer pitch is already much softer than the usual NFL turf, and a slick surface plays into the hands of the Dolphins with a shorter passing game and ability to run the ball, compared to the Saints' speed down field. A slippery surface favors the offense, simply because the ball carrier knows which way he's cutting and the defender does not.
Pick: Miami +3
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, 44)
As a Cowboys fan, I love seeing the Giants at 0-3 to start the year. But as a football bettor, I love seeing the value with this team in Week 4. New York seemed to snap out of its 2.5-game funk after falling behind 14-0 to the Eagles Sunday but couldn’t avoid a tough overtime loss on a 61-yard field goal.
Odell Beckham Jr., who was held back by an ankle injury in the opening two games, looked like his old annoying self, reeling in nine balls for 79 yards and two touchdowns (and one dog piss celebration?). Brandon Marshall had his best game as a Giant (when he wasn’t too busy spitting on Eagles fans?) and Sterling Shepard had a career game with 133 yards and a TD (I don’t know if he did anything gross. Maybe he didn’t wash his hands after taking a poop or something?).
Outside of having the conduct of a bath salts-fueled perp on A&E’s Live PD, there are some things to like about New York in Week 4 – rather some things about the Bucs that you may not like. Tampa was torched by Case Keenum for 369 yards and three touchdowns in Week 3 (yes, Case Keenum) and suffered major hits on defense, with injuries to LB Lavonte David and DE Noah Spence. Linebacker Kwon Alexander is nursing a hamstring injury and there is a flu bug making its way through the Bucs’ locker room.
This line opened Buccaneers -4.5 and has dropped to as low as -3, with some -3.5 lines still out there for the taking. Get the hook while you can.
Pick: N.Y. Giants +3.5
Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 4-5 ATS
Jason Logan is the senior managing editor for Covers.com. You can tell him how much his NFL underdog picks suck on Twitter @CoversJlo.
