NFL Underdogs: Week 5 pointspread picks

Oct 4, 2012 |
NFL Underdogs: Week 5 pointspread picks
The Browns are a big fat farting bulldog in New York this Sunday.
The Browns are a big fat farting bulldog in New York this Sunday.
Some people have his and hers hand towels or coffee mugs. Hell, even some pompous pricks have his and hers cars.

Myself and Mrs. Underdogs, we have his and hers dogs.

Hers is a little fluffy white shih-poo, like a teddy bear that came to life. His is a fat snorting bulldog that farts and drools and farts some more. They’re basically the real-life versions of Looney Tunes’ staples Spike and Chester.

But while the bulldog looks it could tear you a new asshole faster than Bill Belichick on a replacement ref, it’s the little dog you have to watch out for.

It spends most of its days staring out the front window, scoping for squirrels, birds and anything else it can kill. It attacks the bulldog, snarling and ripping at its ears. And, if you ever corner the little fur ball… well, let’s just say you have shop teacher’s chance of keeping all your digits intact.

The same goes for NFL betting these days. It’s the little dog you need to watch out for.

Underdogs have gone a profitable 38-23-2 ATS (62.3 percent) through the first four weeks of the schedule, and while the big dogs seem to be the most dangerous – getting all those points - it’s the little dogs doing all the damage.

Heading into Week 5, underdogs of 1-3 points are 19-9-1 ATS (17-12 SU) and covering at a 65.5 percent rate. There are only three teams tagged as an underdog of three points or less this week: St. Louis, Seattle and Washington.

NFL underdogs between 3.5-6 points are 8-5 ATS (6-7 SU), pups of 6.5-9.5 points are 9-6-1 ATS (3-13 SU, and the double-digit dogs of 10 points or more are just 2-3 ATS and 1-4 SU, with the Arizona Cardinals’ (+13) 20-18 win at New England serving as that lone double-digit dog upset.

Based on that, you’d think I’d be all over the little dogs this Sunday. But, as mentioned above, his dog is a big fat bulldog. And there’s no bigger fatter bulldog on the board than the Cleveland Browns +9.5 visiting the New York Giants.

Cleveland +9.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 43)

While we’re on the subject of dogs, did you hear the rumor that Mike Vick broke both his legs in a car accident Wednesday?

The latest in a long line of internet hoaxes prompted some harsh words for the former dog fighter through social media, with people applauding the fake accident report and spouting things like “karma is a muthaf-cker.”

I’m no fan of Vick or his past exploits. But the athlete in me wishes that on no man. And for all of you people claiming “karma” on No. 7, let’s just hope you’re not betting on the Steelers this weekend.

Vick’s legs are fine and an old and busted Steelers defense is going to find out just how fine Sunday.

Pick: Philadelphia +3.5

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-6.5, 51.5)

Forget the Manning vs. Brady headline for this game – if the relentless media coverage will let you – and focus on the facts: The Broncos have been especially profitable in Foxboro, posting a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven trips to the Boston outskirts.

And of course, there’s Manning vs. Brady

Damn it! Curse you media brain wash!

Pick: Denver +6.5

Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 9-2-1 ATS

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