The Cleveland Guardians pulled themselves out of the abyss with a huge win over the Chicago White Sox on Sunday and will now look to extend the Texas Rangers’ losing streak with a big game on the road.
With two struggling starters toeing the slab, my Guardians vs. Rangers prediction is backing the Over. Find out more in my MLB picks for this May 13 scuffle.
Guardians vs Rangers prediction
My best bet
Over 9 (-103 at BetRivers)
My analysis
These teams have struggled to hit the ball over the last week, but hear me out.
The Texas Rangers’ numbers look good enough, but after dominating at the plate, a 14th-best wRC+ over that span has to be seen as a disappointment. The Cleveland Guardians have mustered up just an 82 wRC+, but their .193 Isolated Power is beefy and looks nice next to a relatively low 23.5% strikeout rate. The big drawback has been the lack of walks, but things will turn around against a guy who has struggled to keep things under control.
Michael Lorenzen owns an 11.7% walk rate to this point in the season, which is nothing new when you look at his long track record of struggling with control. For a second straight season, his expected batting average is firmly worse than the league norm, and his xSLG has gotten even worse. The veteran is pitching to fewer ground balls, a ton of quality contact, and struggling to strike guys out — creating a very murky outlook for this one against a team that can drive the ball.
On the flip side, Tanner Bibee hasn’t quite delivered in his second full season at the big-league level after an exciting start to his career, and the biggest concern here is an influx of barrels and expected hits.
The positive is his strikeout rate has grown from an already-strong mark and he’s still better than the league average in walks. He could do with more ground balls, but he’s making slow improvements after being an extreme flyball pitcher in 2023.
I think Bibee will ultimately be fine, but pitching to this many fly balls and well-struck contact in a hitter’s park reeks of danger. On the flip side, Cleveland’s power should instill fear into Lorenzen, and with some more walks, it should be able to do a good deal of damage here.
Guardians vs Rangers same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 9
Tanner Bibee Under 4.5 strikeouts
Josh Naylor 2+ total bases
In what should be a high-scoring affair, you might feel inclined to skip the pitching props and head straight for the batters in this one. Well, I see the Under on Bibee’s strikeouts as a great shout. Yes, he’s generally been brilliant in this area and has eclipsed four punchouts in three of his last four starts, but the Rangers do an excellent job of getting the ball back into play and are striking out fewer than 19% of the time over the last week.
Bibee should have a relatively short start and get burned by some power hitters, so I do feel as though this line isn’t quite on par.
Then, I’m somewhat shocked to see Josh Naylor’s total bases at this price. He’s hitting a whopping .292 with a stunning .708 slugging percentage over the last week and has a hit in five straight, with two or more total bases in four straight. He should tee off on Lorenzen.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Guardians vs Rangers odds
Guardians vs Rangers live odds
Guardians vs Rangers opening odds
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-205) | Texas -1.5 (+170)
- Moneyline: Cleveland +100 | Texas -120
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Guardians vs Rangers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Guardians opened at +100 but the market now has both sides around or at -110.
- The total opened at nine, fell to 8.5, then was bet back up to nine as of writing.
- Just 42% of bets are on the Over at DraftKings, but 62% of the cash is.
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Guardians vs Rangers trend
The Cleveland Guardians have covered the run line in 34 of their last 60 away games (+6.30 Units / 8% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Rangers
Guardians vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Monday, 5-13-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Great Lakes, Blly Sports Southwest |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Tanner Bibee (2-1, 4.91 ERA) |
| New York starting pitcher: | Lorenzen (2-2, 4.66 ERA) |
Guardians vs Rangers latest injuries
Guardians vs Rangers weather
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