Manchester City can take a huge step towards another Premier League title on Tuesday when they visit London to face Tottenham.
The Spurs are in a tough spot, as a win against Man City would benefit their biggest rivals. But they could push their home unbeaten streak against the Citizens to five straight with a victory.
Man City need only win out to guarantee another title but currently sit two points behind Arsenal. Dropping points would take destiny out of their own hands and set up an amazing final day.
We’re here to help you find the best value in our EPL prediction for Tottenham vs. Manchester City on Tuesday, May 14.
EPL predictions for Tottenham vs Man City
My best bet:
Josko Gvardiol 1+ shot on goal (+179 at TonyBet)
My analysis
If you’ve watched Tottenham recently, it’s no secret they struggle with defending set pieces. Whether it’s a corner or a free kick, teams have found success in dead-ball situations against Spurs.
In fact, they conceded five goals across recent defeats to Arsenal and Chelsea and all five goals came from either a corner kick or a free kick. That streak came to an end the following week against Liverpool, but the Reds scored four goals, with two coming from headers off wide crosses.
Spurs have now conceded 16 goals in 36 Premier League matches by way of set pieces. If you listen to manager Ange Postecoglou, it’s nothing for them to be concerned about. But if you trust your own eyeballs, it’s clear to everyone that something has to change.
But it’s not going to change this season, and I’m perfectly fine with that. Because in a match that features plenty of lopsided odds, it gives us an angle of attack that provides plenty of value.
Manchester City has often shifted this season between a 4-2-3-1 formation and a 3-2-4-1 setup, but their last four matches have seen them move back to the four-man defense with Josko Gvardiol set up at left-back. And it’s no coincidence that he’s having his best run of form in that timeframe.
Gvardiol has taken 11 shots in his last six Premier League starts, registering at least one in every match except against Brighton. And he’s notched a shot on goal in four of his last five matches, with five efforts on frame. Gvardiol has also scored all four of his Premier League goals during this run, including two at the weekend against Fulham.
While Gvardiol’s second goal in the match came from a short corner routine, the defender isn’t only reliant on getting a set piece to find a chance to shoot or find the back of the net. He opened the scoring in the 4-0 win on Saturday with a brilliant run, culminating in a one-two with Kevin De Bruyne resulting in a superb finish. It led to Pep Guardiola jokingly referring to him as “the best winger on the planet” after the match.
Spurs play a very high line, one that can be punished on the counter-attack and by runners in space. Combine that and their set piece woes, Gvardiol’s increased involvement in attack, and his price of +179 to put an effort on goal presents a terrific price in a match that is lacking solid betting options.
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Tottenham vs Man City same-game parlay (SGP)
Josko Gvardiol 1+ shot on goal
Erling Haaland to score or assist
Man City moneyline — First Half
Erling Haaland was held without a shot in the reverse fixture, but two members of that three-man Spurs central defense are now gone or injured. Before their win over Burnley this weekend, Tottenham had conceded either a goal or assist to their opponent’s central striker in five straight matches. That continues here.
Manchester City haven’t scored a goal at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in the Premier League since 2019, and their last-gasp FA Cup winner there in January ended a run of five shutouts in all competitions at Tottenham.
But Spurs are leaking goals in the back, and they won’t be terribly motivated to help their bitter rivals win a title.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Tottenham vs Man City odds
Tottenham vs Man City live odds
Tottenham vs Man City opening odds
- Moneyline: Tottenham +660 | Man City-294
- Draw: +520
- Over/Under: Over 3 | Under 3
Tottenham vs Man City side and Over/Under analysis
- Manchester City are overwhelmingly favored at -256 or higher, while the draw pays +500 and a Spurs win pays +650. Many question Tottenham’s desire to win the match and help Arsenal to the title, but they’re simply not good enough to take this one even if they tried.
- Tottenham has six Premier League victories over Manchester City since Pep Guardiola took over, the most of any club in that time. Meanwhile, Guardiola’s won just twice against Spurs.
- The total is the most lopsided I can ever remember, with the Over 2.5 priced at -350. To get an Over anywhere near -110 odds, you’ll have to go to the Asian total of 4.0 goals.
- Tottenham has kept four consecutive clean sheets at home against Manchester City in the Premier League.
Tottenham vs Man City game info
| Location: | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, UK |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-14-2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | USA Network |
| Weather: | 60F, Wind: 10-20 mph; POP: 7%; Humidity 75% |
 Recent EPL form |
W-D-W-L-W |
 Recent EPL form |
W-W-D-D-W |
Tottenham vs Man City key injuries
Tottenham: Richarlison F (Out), Timo Werner F (Out), Destiny Udogie D (Out), Ben Davies D (Out).
Man City: Nathan Ake D (Doubtful).
Not intended for use in MA.
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