Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong

Oct 2, 2012 |
Each week throughout the college football season, Covers Expert Chris Elliott will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most overrated Top 25 team: Northwestern Wildcats (5-0, 5-0 ATS)

The Wildcats are undefeated including four home victories over clubs with a combined 5-11 record on the season. Their lone road game was a 42-41 victory at Syracuse (1-3). The Wildcats travel to Penn State (3-2) to take on a Nittany Lions squad that has won three straight games.

Northwestern is 2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS vs. Penn State all time, including five straight losses SU (1-4 ATS). Look for the overrated Wildcats to take a step back in Week 6.

Most underrated Top 25 team: Oregon State Beavers (3-0, 3-0 ATS)

The Beavers continue to impress with a road victory at Arizona (3-2) to remain undefeated on the season. With victories over Wisconsin and UCLA, this team is proving they’re for real, matching their entire win total of last season at three wins.

Oregon State is at home against the Washington State Cougars (2-3) in Week 6. Expect a dominating victory at home, setting up an exciting matchup at BYU in Week 7.

Unranked team that should be ranked: UCLA Bruins (4-1, 4-1 ATS)

The Bruins are coming off an impressive 42-14 win at Colorado following a tough home loss to current No. 18 Oregon State. The team travels to California to take on the 1-4 Golden Bears in Week 6. The Golden Bears just lost 27-17 at home to Arizona State and currently own the 86th-ranked defense, giving up 30.2 ppg.

This is just what the doctor ordered for a UCLA offense that is ranked 33rd in the nation, scoring 36.8 ppg. Expect a big road victory from the Bruins followed by a jump back into the Top 25.

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