A common myth surrounding professional gamblers is that we don't parlay, but a more accurate assessment would be that we don't parlay often. An equally true statement is that we love parlays. We love them because the odds are incredibly in our favor.
Sportsbooks also love parlays because they make way more vig on parlays than on straight wagers. Sound strange? How can a proposition be both hugely favorable to books and professional gamblers at the same time? Let me explain.
While most sportsbooks struggle to achieve the Theoretical Hold Percentage of 4.55 percent on straight wagers, three-team parlays routinely achieve Practical Hold Percentages over 12 percent.
Basically, you're paying at 6-1 on a proposition with true odds of 7-1. Assuming oddsmakers have made a reasonably effective pointspread, or assuming bettors typically pick correctly 50 percent of the time (both of which are true statements), it is easy to see why sportsbook managers encourage parlays. Nothing gets your hold percentage up like a healthy diet of parlay action.
Here's the math:
((7+1) - (6+1)) / (7+1) = (8-7) / 8 = 12.5%
If the bookie math is throwing you, consider from a player's perspective that a three-team parlay has eight possible outcomes, seven which favor the house and one which favors the player. Hence the true odds of 7-1. However, the standard pay out for a three-team parlay is 6-1.
That overlay (the difference between the payoff and the true odds) is the house vig. One full point overlay on eight possible outcomes, or 1/8 equals 12.5 percent. That's the house commission on three-team parlays. As you add teams to your parlay, the theoretical hold for the house skyrockets as follows.
No. of Teams | Actual Odds | Sportsbook Payout | Theoretical Hold |
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00% |
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50% |
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25% |
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38% |
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94% |
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63% |
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02% |
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21% |
Sports Betting Headlines »
- Pick:
- Philadelphia
- Start:
-
May 26, 2013 - 1:35 PM
- Capper:
-
Marc Lawrence
- Offered at:
- 5dimes @ 145 Philadelphia
- Analysis:
Play On: Philadelphia w/Hamels Note: The Phillies and Nationals put the wraps on a three-game set in the nation's capitol where Cole Hamels opposes Stephen Strasburg Sunday afternoon. Hamels toes the slab knowing he is 12-2 his last fourteen team starts against the Nats and 12-3 his last fifteen teams away team starts during the month of May.
On the other side of the coin Strasburg is struggling to regain last year's form and is just 4-7 in his last eleven home team starts, including 0-3 the last three. He is also just 2-4 in day start this season. Grab Hamels at this attractive price here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia. Thank you and good luck as always. Wow. Marc's database has uncovered a powerful winning angle inside Sunday's Heat/Pacers game that has NEVER LOST the money in Game Three of an NBA playoff game since 1990. Best of all it's yours - if you act now!
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