Learn from a pro: Tips for betting pro pigskin

So you think you’re ready to take the plunge.

Realize this; once you place your first NFL bet, there’s no turning back. Pro football is easily the sport of choice for most bettors, from Joe Public to Sam Sharp.

Every Sunday brings another opportunity to strike it rich - at least that’s what most believe.

Here are several keys to making your NFL betting experience a profitable one.

Don’t follow the crowd

If it looks too good to be true, it probably is.

With so many media outlets piling on so much information over the course of the week, everyone suddenly becomes an expert.

But you’ll see more public burials on Sunday than any other day of the week.

Remember, the lines are set in an effort to put an even amount of money on each side, not to trick the betting majority. Keeping that in mind is key to keeping your bankroll intact.

Check consensus reports, browse sports betting forums, do whatever you can to get a feel for what appears to be the week’s so-called locks.  Even if you don’t bet the other side, staying away is often the right move.

Taking the path less traveled is a good rule of thumb when it comes to choosing your spots.

Off a win vs. off a loss

Motivation is huge when it comes to NFL football.

It’s often the teams that are fresh off a tough loss that make the best bets, even if they’re not the most attractive on paper.

That angle becomes even stronger when you talk about teams coming off a shutout loss.

No one likes to be embarrassed, and we’re talking about some of the biggest egos in all of sports taking the field each week. Pride plays a major role in motivation.

Those teams that are fat and happy off a win, especially over a divisional opponent or rival, are more likely to suffer a letdown the next week.

Sandwich games

I’m not talking about pastrami on rye here.

Keep an eye out for situations where a team is facing a non-conference opponent between two divisional games. They have reason to hold a little back in these spots, and can get caught looking ahead.

There are also those games where one team can essentially name its score against an inferior opponent. The Detroit Lions were on the wrong side of plenty of those situations last season.

In those spots, the superior team can ease off the gas pedal, opening the door for an underdog cover.

Every team has numerous flat spots in its 16-game schedule. Locating those games prior to the start of the season can put you ahead of the curve.

Betting TV games

This is another situation where knowing how the public is betting is key.

For most nationally televised primetime games, the betting majority will lean to the favorite and the over.

The oddsmakers know this, and take it into consideration when setting their lines.

I’m not saying that the underdog and the under are always the way to go, but giving those plays an initial look is imperative.

Weather

While weather is rarely a major factor in the early stages of the NFL season, it takes on a critical role later on.

The most common mistake bettors make is assuming that bad weather leads to less scoring. It’s often exactly the opposite.

High winds or extreme rain/snow storms can have a negative effect on scoring, but for the most part, slippery fields give the advantage to the offense.

Knowing how each team plays in different types of weather is also key, particularly when we’re talking about extreme cold or heat.

Conditioning plays a major role in a team’s success playing in hot weather.

Meanwhile, teams from the south can struggle when heading north to play in harsh conditions from the end of November on.

Speaking of traveling, pay attention to teams playing across multiple time zones. West Coast teams tend to have a tough time in early starts on the East Coast.

Revenge? Not so much

Revenge is best left to the college game.

There are few trends that support revenge as a long-term winning angle in pro football. With that said, there are still a great number of bettors who will back a team based solely on that angle.

That often provides us with excellent value going the other way, especially when it comes to much-hyped same season revenge.

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Posted by middletown
3 years ago

I'll share this: vegas plays a lot of games, I beleive that they alter lines to attract action on one side, because there getting hammered one way, they say the money moves the line but I think they alter lines to entice betting. I've seen over the years a line move heavy and still the other side wins. My approach is always this, like the track, don't care about odds only in underlays, if you like a play, play it, we sometimes look into line movement and get mislead.
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Posted by Rocket10
3 years ago

I'll chime in on this. When marquee big name teams are playing (Yankees, Patriots, Lakers), the lines are effected, and structured a certain way. Vegas sets the lines, and for those who do not know 71% of the people who are in Vegas on the weekends are Californians, so if a Cali team is playing, the lines could be way off.
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Posted by ipickem28
3 years ago

good stuff i like it
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Posted by MTFN50
3 years ago

What do u think is there objective on totals ? I think they are based more on even amounts of money.I do agree with ur insite bmoose. but does it carryover to totals? Also going into the 3rd season following this. trend.Teams whos point spreads have changed 3 or more points from opning line to kickoff ive gone against the line (going the other way) and been winning at a 70% clip,can anyone provide a therory for that?
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Posted by cappinthepigs
3 years ago

@bmoose11 I'm with you, 100% agree. It's not to get the same amount of money on each side. This misconception is ruining a lot of people's bankrolls!!
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Posted by bmoose11
3 years ago

I might be the only person left in the gambling world but I still believe this... THE PEOPLE WHO MAKE THE LINES DO NOT MAKE THEM SO THAT MONEY WILL BE SPLIT EVENLY ON BOTH SIDES. They create the lines so that there is a 50% chance of either side winning. Any approach other than this creates an edge, and if there were an edge there would be more (read any) consistent winners over the long term. Every games is ideally a coin flip for the book, and if you lay -110 on a coin flip thousands of times, well do I need to explain what happens. If you were running a "coin flip book" where you just flipped a coin and ppl bet heads or tails at -110 would you care what percentage of money went on which side. It's irrelevant, you are going to win when you have the massive nonstop action that something like the NFL generates. There is no way the geniuses that are "Vegas" set Minnesota as a 4 point fave at Cleveland this week expecting 50-50 action, none whatsoever. And I'm not saying I think Cleveland is going to win because of the heavy action on Minn, I'm saying it's 50-50, just as the books set it.
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Top Response

Posted by ipickem28
3 years ago

"good stuff i like it"