College Cram Session: Slump-bustin

Is anyone else in a slump? If not, will you show me the way out of this hellhole?

“Slumps are bad, bad news,” betting analyst Frank Doyle said in an email. “They're like a car spinning on ice, you know? What you instinctively do to correct the spin may actually make it worse.

“You start second-guessing,” Doyle added. “What was once good evidence to make a decision is suddenly stuff you're no longer sure of. You don't know up from down.”

I know the feeling.

Very few games are jumping off the board at me these days. When they do, I tend to ignore the logical information for fear of the vaunted “trap” game.

It’s exactly the kind of thinking that extends slumps instead of ending them.
Alden Cass, a performance enhancement coach and clinical psychologist, works with high-profile CEO’s and financial advisors. In an article on TheStreet.com, Cass wrote “It's the Law of Averages: Slumps are a normal part of a fluctuating cycle for athletes and investors throughout a full season.

“Don't get bogged down in episodic slumps. Let it all come down to the end of the season to measure your overall performance. Then you can go back and micromanage your winners and losers.

“After all, cold streaks are just a part of the game.”

That’s extremely sound advice. Slumps happen. You cannot prevent them. But you can stop them from lingering.

Surely, I’m not the only one that has considered playing the exact opposite of what you think is going to happen. Or maybe you decide to only play underdogs after a couple tough losses with favorites.

Those are horrific habits of someone in a slump. When these negatives creep into your thought process, you’re allowing the fear of losing to clutter your thinking. 
It may be time for a break. Another slump-busting trick I’ve used is to trim the overall slate down to a handful of games.  Look at only the SEC, for example. Or try handicapping five games involving teams you haven’t bet on this year.

Don’t let fear win.

I feel like Yoda trying to warn Luke of the Dark Side.

SMART MONEY

November is always a difficult time of year to bet college football.
Oddsmakers are locked in on the public perception. They’re throwing out confusing lines that are easy to misinterpret.

As of late Thursday, very few of this week’s games had moved significantly off their opening pointspreads.

South Carolina and Duke were the only underdogs that are seeing much action. The Gamecocks opened as a 23-point underdog. The number dropped immediately to around 21.5, but has since risen back toward the original number.

The Blue Devils opened as 12.5-point dogs at Clemson, but as of late Thursday, the line was nearing 10.

I like being on the side of quick line moves, especially when it’s toward the underdog.

This, to me, represents smart money dropping large amounts and forcing the books to act immediately and drastically. In contrast, I believe the public is responsible for lines that move slowly throughout the week, especially toward favorites.

NOTES
•The three coaches who will be stepping down at the end of the season—Washington’s Tyrone Willingham, Tennessee’s Phil Fulmer and Toledo’s Tom Amstutz—have gone a combined 0-4 ATS since making the announcement.

•South Carolina is thin in the secondary. The Gamecocks will be without starting free safety Chris Culliver for the first half against Florida, and his backup, freshman Akeem Auguste, missed practice time this week with a hamstring injury.

•Maryland was held to -12 yards rushing in last week’s loss to Virginia Tech. To make things worse for the Terps’ ground game, top running back Da’Rel Scott was wearing a non-contact jersey in practice this week. He’s been battling a shoulder injury, but is expected to play against North Carolina.<

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Posted by David_Payne
6 years ago

For the record, I believe strongly in playing the same No. of units on each game. If you feel more strongly about one game than the other, why not just play the game or games you feel the most strongly about? UGA special teams are killing me ...
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Posted by MR219
6 years ago

Hey luckylogan, Thanks for your feedback. I am playing the same 1 unit on every game today because this entire week, I have been getting burned when play bigger units on games. I have a winning record but am down units. I have nothing against the UCONN or Ohio State picks. These game did not jump out at me when I was reviewing them.
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Posted by David_Payne
6 years ago

Good stuff everyone ... albatross ... UW-UCLA line seems prety accurate to me ... probably a one or two-score game. I'm passing, but believe Washington has one win in them ... probably against WSU. Matt B ... I'm worried about a backdoor cover from Kansas ... Texas' center issues worry me also with Horns running so much from the shotgun. Starting and backup centers are out. Mr219 ... You were solid last week ... keep up the good work and appreciate the insight ... Get 'em, guys and gals.
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Posted by Pdewey
6 years ago

Two things here, First I love OregonSt -3, second PaPa Joe has a handicapping therory of taking the top 10 plus or minus the pts. He says the past three weeks is going 65%
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Posted by csipes
6 years ago

HEY IF YOU WANT TO START YOUR DAY OFF WITH A WINNER HERE YOU GO !!!!!!!! 10 PT TEASER OSU - +1 UGA - +.5 TEXAS - -3.5
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Posted by jeffjames
6 years ago

I am so glad logan is on wake now I feel great with N C ST here we go MARSHAl wash huskys money line
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Posted by Mattyb308
6 years ago

Any thoughts on Texas -13.5 at Kansas?
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Posted by warrenmoonfan12
6 years ago

Nebraska is giving 6 points to a team that has already lost its coach, and whose only decent player has already shut it down in prep for the NFL draft. I believe the Huskers are the play. Folks around here want a New Years Day Bowl - the huskers will be hyped. The wildcats will be waiting for bill snyder to come back next year. Huskers have also finally found a run game. Check Helu's stats from the last two weeks.
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Posted by Odie77
6 years ago

Also in big favor of the Purdue call. Michigan St scored 14 offensive points against a Purdue defense that seems to be getting better every week. regardles of the PSU win last week, Iowa isnt near as good as Mich ST. I think Iowa only wins by a touchdown or so. Purdue +17
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Posted by Odie77
6 years ago

NC over Maryland is a good call. Terps are reeling because of injuries and will be facing a decent NC defense that suppresses scoring pretty well. Terps are struggling to move the ball, that was evident against vatech. NC -3
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Posted by MR219
6 years ago

I definitely agree that it becomes more difficult to handicap games as the season winds down. Lines are sharper. Injuries and fatigue impact teams differently from one week to the next. Having said that, I try to be very careful laying road chalk in the final weeks unless I am backing a team that has shown a consistent trend of running it up on the road. Once again, I am not crazy about this week's picks in the article. Neither NC and Georgia are teams that I feel comfortable laying road chalk with at the moment. I did a pretty good job of handicapping the ACC games last week. However, there is a lot of parity in this conference this year, and I think this week's slate of ACC games is very difficult to handicap. I have a hard time seeing NC winning by 4 or more. I definitely do not see any value with this proposition. Georgia should be able to pound Auburn. But Auburn is tough at home, especially on defence. Georgia gave up 38 to a less than impressive Kentucky squad last week. I am sort of having the same feeling I did with the ECU - Marshall selection from last week with this one. Georgia should be able to cover, but there are definitely better valued games out there. Here are my plays for this week so far: 1. Purdue +18 at Iowa. Purdue has been playing better as the seaon has progressed. They may catch Iowa napping a bit after their huge win over Penn State last week. 1 unit play. 2. South Carolina +21.5 at Florida. South Carolina has been playing well. I just can't see them coming out flat and do not see them being blown out. I think they keep this one close. 1 unit play. 3. BYU - 4 at Airforce. I think BYU stuffs Airforces ground game and wins this one going away. 1 unit play. 4. Notre Dame - 4 versus Navy. Same explanation as above. 1 unit play. 5. Colorado State PK +115 vs New Mexico. New Mexico's last game and it seems like they have thrown in the towel. Colorado State has been playing well lately and with confidence. 1 unit play. 6. Texas -13.5 at Kansas. Texas needs to pour it on and hope for some help to have any chance (probably slim to none) at the BCS championship game. Kansas is fading fast, and don't have the tools to keep up with Texas' high potent offence. 1 unit play. 7. NC State +3.5 vs WF. In what will probably be a field goal game, I will glady take the points with the home dog. Good Luck with all of your bets!
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Posted by letsgamble23
6 years ago

EARLY XMAS GIFT!! BAYLOR AND A&M OVER 59. BET IT!!!!!!!
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Posted by supercurb4x4
6 years ago

Good story...I went 3-0 for the weekend. Scraping by on 2 out of 3 though. I say just don't over think the info you recieve. Go with your gut.
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Posted by albatross7
6 years ago

Any thoughts on UCLa-7.5 versus Washington ?
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Posted by angrypirate129
6 years ago

I,m in a bad way myself right now, still up but holding on for dear life. good article to try get my head back on straight. Been chasing dumb garbage all week. Tonight I will sty on home dog Ville getting 4.
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Posted by drifter44
6 years ago

5 Florida st wide receivers have been suspended for campus fight will the line change or does it really matter?
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Posted by barozzi
6 years ago

georgia will roll by 21 florida state will win by 17 against a weak bc team that cant keep up with fsu on sat. night on espn
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Top Response

Posted by barozzi
6 years ago

"georgia will roll by 21 florida state will win by 17 against a weak bc team that cant keep up with fsu on sat. night on espn"