Aussieguy's Day 4 French Open picks and analysis

Aussieguy is one of the most respected posters in the Covers.com forum and he loves to beat the books at tennis. Check out his Covers Space here.

Sometimes you've gotta laugh, I reckon. How can you go 0-8, like I have with my picks so far in the French Open???!!

This will make my “gambling history” book, for sure. I've had a few bizarre losses and some strange wins in the past, but never have I gone like I did in the last two days! Anyhow, can't get any worse, can it? I can plateau but I won't go worse. 

Luis Horna (+165) vs. Gael Monfils (-225)

Obviously, I underestimated Horna in my previous assessment and after taking stock of my Day 2 and 3 selections, perhaps I should be the one taking up pottery instead of the Peruvian! 

Next up for Horna, though, is a very athletic, young Frenchman. Monfils has had his fair share of trouble with his feet and ankles in the past couple of years. He's had to retire during a match on two occasions due to rolling his ankles as he slides sideways. Why am I bothering with such a trivial stat? Well, because playing on clay is about mastering your slide to the ball – please note: not run, but slide to the ball. The Spanish armada does this perfectly, hence their success on the red dirt.

Monfils had his ankle injuries (both on hard court) because he's so used to sliding on clay. He loves playing on this surface. It was the only surface that was kind to him last year and the only surface on which he was above 50 percent (12 wins and eight losses). He made it to the fourth round two years ago and, cheered on by his home crowd, I am picking him to advance past Horna into the third round this year.
 
Jarkko Nieminen vs. Martin Vasallo Arguello

I expect Vasallo Arguello to cause an upset against the No. 26 seed from Finland, Nieminen. Vasallo Arguello is a great clay-courter whose game obviously is very well suited to this surface. He hasn't made it past the first round in any other major, but he's been as deep as the fourth round here in Paris. He made very light work of Feliciano Lopez in the previous round and now he faces another left-hander, who I don't think he'll have much trouble against.

Niemenen had some great victories against some big names in his career, but none of his weighty wins have come on clay. His preparation coming into the French Open hasn't been that glamorous either. He has been as deep as the fourth round here in Paris, but I don't think he'll get past the Argentine today. Vasallo Arguello is my upset pick here.

Don't miss Aussieguy's analysis and picks every day throughout the French Open! To view yesterday's picks, click here.

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Posted by PTSHAPES
6 years ago

I am on both, thanks Aussie.
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Posted by Aussieguy
6 years ago

DAY 5 PICKS: RADWANSKA -Cornet First up tonight I've picked the battle of the two youngsters. Both players had a fantastic year in the women's tour in 2007 reaching career highs, and both have started 2008 in a very convincing fashion on all surfaces. Radwanska is ranked 15th, Cornet is ranked 20th. Both players love their long rallies on clay and really there's not much that separates the two players, the bookies thinking much the same. I am going with an "upset" here however, as I expect by match time Cornet will end up being the favourite with the books. It'll be the home ground advantage (which means diddly squat in tennis, anway!) and her glamour status that will drive the public to pour their money behind the French young lady. But caution : don't underestimate the power and potential of Radwanska! I know it was a while ago now, and it's totally different ball game compared to the clay of Roland Garros, but at the Australian Open this year, the Polish girl made me (and many other Tennis lovers) a believer. She reached the quarterfinals claiming some big scalps on the way. She should have gone further in my opinion, but ... oh well, that's in the past now. In the previous 2 rounds, Radwanska has looked a little more convincing than Cornet who struggled to put Dulko away. This will be a tussle, a very tight contest which should go the distance. I am going with RADWANSKA here to get the W. ALMAGRO -Murray I really don't go for favourites that have this much juice, but this one really stands out and should translate into green paper for us. I would pick Almagro here even if this match was being played on grass, carpet or hard court. Does anyone think that the Scot has much of a chance here - against one of the very best on clay?! There's only 1 word I would use to describe Almagro's style and performance on clay - Stellar! No, that's not an ovestatement either! So after all I've been writing, I was starting to think 'Why are the books giving such high odds on Almagro? Is there something which I'm not seeing?!' The only reason that I can see that Almagro isn't a stronger favourite with the books, is because of his lack of performance here in Paris in the past. This seems to be his handicap, as he has never made it past the second round here! But how does Murray rate against his Spanish opponent? He hasn't gone past the first round here; this is his best performace by far. Allow me to break down Murray's game plan: He relies mainly on his powerful serve, hoping for a weak return so he can put the ball away on the third shot. But will this game plan work here against Almagro? On this heavily moisted clay, his serve becomes obselete, Almagro's return comes with interest, and Murray ain't no Nadal to put that third shot away on clay! I would be quite surprised if Murray manages to even take a set off of the Spaniard today. But then again, I've been wrong before... Almagro to win this comfortably.
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Posted by Aussieguy
6 years ago

andreag. Nah mate, I'd have to disagree with you. I am doing EXACTLY what I've always done. The only difference perhaps is that I've verbalised more my thoughts, as opposed to keepin it short in the Tennis forum. Also, I've heard what Rod and many many others have pointed out to me, that I've picked too many plays, which is unlike me. Covers have been very understanding too (and I am not saying it to brown nose anyone at Covers either) But yeah they've been really good and supportive and letting me do what I do best. The only problem we have however, is that this thing is called GAMBLING (mojams just pointed that out too) There's the law of averages, there's the losing and winning streaks, and there's luck involved. Furthermore and most importantly, let me just say, that I am ONLY playing the dogs! They are dogs for a reason however. Don't ever forget that! It'll be very easy to post 8 Winners and 0Losers if I were to pick redHot Favourites i.e. Gael Monfils last night! It's a matter of finding the edge in the underdogs and that's what I do. I've done that very successfully over the years, but I've sucked in the last 2 days! Hopefully I pick better match ups in the next few days and weeks. Cheers AUSSIE
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Posted by Aussieguy
6 years ago

Sweet! Thnx Mojams. Day 5 picks should be posted soon and hopefully we'll be cruising from here on... But first let's get this Spurs +8 bet Cheers and Best wishes to you AUSSIE
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Posted by andreagassi6969
6 years ago

Hey Aussie, you should go back to just posting in the forums bro. You are overanalyzing, go back with what works, picking winners in the tennis forum, not here. The French Open is the toughest tournament in the world. Especially to pick winners. Keep on keepin on.
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Posted by Mojams71
6 years ago

Aussie, 0-8, it's almost laughable... been doing good in bases and hoops so not out too much, 1-1 today.. you know I'm with you mate... It is called GAMBLING, if it was easy, everybody could do it, I've seen you go 8-0 as well bro... so keep on keeping on... continued Blessings and prosperity to you and yours... ps... Happy Birthday, thought I'd forget didn't ya? Anyway, it's still the 29th over here, may God give you many, many more brother!!!!
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Posted by rapsdallas
6 years ago

Mofils wins in straight sets :)
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Posted by embryo
6 years ago

2 picks : i also like mofils. also went with hewitt. i just think hes a tough fighter. he often gives his best effort and i think he has the style good for clay. unlike fish which every time ive watched him, he just looks lazy. like he s trying to get the match over with so he can go get drunk at some bar sooner. youve pretty much taught me everything i know about betting and im alot more successful bec of it. money management and 1/2 pics max a day :) cheers my friend....and much success with the rest of the tourn.
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Posted by jmk
6 years ago

So far taking first set point with his second selection, today's two matchs together have almost won more points than all other 9 selections combined, that should also tell you he's gettting wamer. We'll see I suppose.
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Posted by jmk
6 years ago

Yeah, he may have lost this one but he's getting closer. I jumped on the band wagon after following these picks closely and really had a strong feel that the tide was going to change and a hot streak was on the alert. Well, maybe not hot but it got warmer evidence of this match up being his second best lost that actually showed up to play and earn a set point. Its more disappointing when your picks are getting dominated over and over, you begin to question whether the selections and experience exist, especially French Open where sets go 5. i believe this recent match up, the dog finally showed up. Everyone is on their own at this point. You see the record is 0-10, baffling as it is, you either think he has it or you've learned a lesson 10 times over. I believe he will survive and he'll find a way back to his old ways. Only two picks today with one of the picks being his second strongest of the tournament, i'd say something is getting better.
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Posted by rapsdallas
6 years ago

Arguello goes down in 4 sets.
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Posted by Quone
6 years ago

Well nice call on Gulbis but I wouldn't call it a "hit" because he's 0-9 right now.
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Posted by panteraa
6 years ago

thanks for all your insight , i think your one if not the best on this site. i wish you could give us wanta be a little more of your insight on baseball, thank you inadvance panteraa
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Posted by HeadOverHeart
6 years ago

Bankroll...get a clue mate. Aussie.........NICE HIT ON GULBIS!!! Tons of errors, but Blake, being Blake, had no responce. BINGO! Really like the Monfils pick and am on it after Nadal wipes up his opponent. Might have to wait until tomorrow to cash and by then the Crows will have smashed the Bombers and we'll be off rolling into the weekend of winners! $$$$
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Posted by rapsdallas
6 years ago

Up 3-1 in the 4th set. Lets turn this around Aussie
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Posted by Aussieguy
6 years ago

wow! Vasallo Arguello's showing signs of life and that his pulse is still pounding... 2-1 now
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Posted by rapsdallas
6 years ago

Im rooting for you as i have 1/2 a unit on it
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Posted by Aussieguy
6 years ago

very gracious bosschar. Hopefully haven't gone crazy in the past 2-3 days though. Is Vasallo gonna turn this around or will my "clean sweep" continue.......He's down 2-0... Make or BREAK set now AUSSIE
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Posted by rapsdallas
6 years ago

Martin Vassallo Arguello plays a close 1st set but down 5-1 in the second.
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Posted by bosschar
6 years ago

Hey Aussie, I have been following your picks for two weeks now. I will continue to do so! Thanks for them all. :) Best of luck!
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Posted by n3gative
6 years ago

Ginepri a solid player? quote of the year right there :) gl Aussie, we might get 10 mins of court action for today.
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Posted by Aussieguy
6 years ago

JHB, that's the way I see it mate, and my call followed! I guess you see it differently. As for Safin, I've been the first one to say (if you've read the threads) that the guys is a genius! I've said he can take out Nadal and Federer and Ferrer even on clay all at the same time. Him having potential is a gross understatement. He's magnificent if he's 100% there on the court. The problem doesn't lie in his laziness however, but his fragile state of mind. As I said before, you never know who'll turn up tonight against Davyd. Safin the genius or the deranged freak who'll forfeit the match cause he smashed all the racquets he'd brought with him to Paris! Best of luck though buddy, no matter which plays you choose tonight! AUSSIE
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Posted by JHBuff25
6 years ago

Also, I think you're wrong about Safin's chances. He has potential but he is LAAAAAAAAZY. Davy is earning his 4th rank on every surface. No reason he doesn't wipe the floor with Safin.
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Posted by JHBuff25
6 years ago

Come on, Aussie. Vassallo? He's got exactly one victory under his belt prior to this tournament and a five setter that he shouldn't have won to begin with. Who knows what's wrong with Lopez. Inconsistent. Niemenen has a decent clay court resume he's just had awful seeding thanx to some sloth. Jarkko may be all washed up and going through the motions but he could have just had some sour luck and some seriously hot opponents. I'm not touching that one. My favorite upset lean is Ginepri over Andreev. Their both solid players and I think it could go either way. Whoever sets the seeding for the French should be clubbed like a baby seal.
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Posted by Aussieguy
6 years ago

Bankroll my suggestion is:steer clear of parlays! That's the first step towards successful betting. And really the good suggestions I posted above matey. It's those two that I'm betting on and the reply to Moose i.e. Robredo, Daniel, Gulbis (if you feel a little adventurous, that is) and stay away from Hewitt and Davydenko matches as they can fall either side! Hartless, I get your humour mate, and sometimes it's healthy to laugh instead of crying as I feel after the last couple of days. Hopefully, we're in damage control tonight (if we see any play that is!) Best of luck with your plays guys! Me too! AUSSIE PS - Nah I can't remember that particular Suns match bankroll, but hopefully tonight follows suit of that WIN
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Top Response

Posted by rapsdallas
6 years ago

"Im rooting for you as i have 1/2 a unit on it"