Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong

Feb 13, 2013 |
Georgetown is making a run for the Big East regular season title.
Photo By - USA Today Sports
Georgetown is making a run for the Big East regular season title.
Photo By - USA Today Sports
Each week throughout the college basketball season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most Underrated Top 25 Team - Georgetown Hoyas (18-4, 11-7 ATS)

We can't forget about Georgetown. After a slow start to the season, the Hoyas are making some noise winning six in a row. Three of those victories came against Top-25 teams (Louisville, Notre Dame and Marquette). Georgetown backers have been lining their pockets during a very profitable 9-2 ATS run by the Hoyas.

The schedule doesn't get any easier for Georgetown, traveling to Cincinnati to take on the Bearcats Friday. The Hoyas will close out February with a pair of tough games on the road against Syracuse and Connecticut. They are currently just half a game back of the Orange in the Big East, and they face Syracuse twice before the end of the season.

Most Overrated Top 25 Team - Creighton Bluejays (20-5, 13-9 ATS)

The Bluejays were a popular team with the betting public early in the year, going an impressive 10-2 ATS at the beginning of January. Creighton is now coming off back-to-back losses and the Bluejays have dropped four of their last seven. They have only covered the spread once in their past eight games, costing their backers a good chunk of coin.

The Bluejays are locked in a three-way tie for the lead in the MVC, with Wichita State and Indiana State. They haven't been hitting their shots in recent games, losing to Illinois State and Indiana State, and falling well short of their season average.

Their next game isn't going to be an easy one, as they go out on the road to face Northern Iowa - a team coming off three straight wins. The Panthers have already upset Wichita State at home earlier this month.

Unranked Team That Should Be Ranked – Wichita State Shockers (20-5, 11-10-1 ATS)

Surely if Creighton can remain in the rankings, then the Shockers should be there as well. After all, Wichita State has an identical record, playing in the same conference against all the same opponents. But when these teams faced each other, it was the Shockers that shocked the Bluejays, winning by a score of 67-64.

Both teams have tough games on deck and they face each other in a rematch in Omaha March 2. Wichita State will play three of five at home prior to facing the Jays in the final game of the season, while Creighton plays four of five on the road. Needless to say, it wouldn't be much of a shock to see the Shockers come out on top in the Missouri Valley Conference.
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