Where the action is: Books respect sharp money on Cardinals

Oct 17, 2013 |
The NFC West takes the Thursday Night Football stage in Week 7 when the Arizona Cardinals host the Seattle Seahawks. We talk with Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in on this standalone game and where the odds could end up come kickoff:

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals – Open: +6, Move: +6.5, Move: +5.5, Move: +5

Stewart admits that this line was inflated, with oddsmakers tacking on some extra points to soften the hit of public money expected to rush in on Seattle for the Thursday nighter.

“We felt the true line on this game was in the 4.5 to five range, but we also felt the public would be all over the Seahawks as they've been backing them ever since their dominating win over the 49ers last month,” Stewart told Covers.

Sure enough, books were right with the early action betting the Seahawks from -6 to -6.5 (-120). However, once that price tag peaked Thursday morning, sharps came back on Arizona, which has won six of its last seven home games against Seattle. That forced CarbonSports.ag to trim the juice to Seahawks -6.5 (EVEN).

“While 65 percent of the money is on the favorite, we respect the sharp money that is on the dog,” says Stewart. “We will be going into this game needing the Cardinals and we very much like our position.”

As for Thursday’s total, the number opened at 40.5 and remained steady for most of the week, even with 70 percent of the action on the Over. Stewart says there was a slight adjustment to the vig this morning, moving from Over 40.5 (-110) to 40.5 (-115), and is reluctant to jump to the key over/under number of 41 points.

“If our customers keep betting Over 40.5 (-115), then I believe we'll eventually get to 41. But at this point our liability isn't significant enough to make that move,” he says.

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