The NBA Finals is down to a deciding Game 7 showdown between the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat Thursday night. We talk to online sportsbooks about the betting trends and where they think the odds will close come the 9 p.m. ET tipoff:
San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat – Open: -6.5, Open: -7, Move: -5.5
After a thrilling comeback and overtime victory in Game 6, books opened the Heat as high as 7-point home favorites for Game 7, tacking a little something extra to the spread after the Spurs’ crushing collapse.
However, the majority of action has sided with San Antonio and has driven the line down as many as 1.5 points at some markets. According to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, they took early bets on the Heat before sharp wagers came in on the Spurs at +6.5 and dropped the spread to Miami -5.5.
“So far 70 percent of the action is on the Spurs but I do believe we’re going to see money come in on the Heat as we get closer to game time,” Stewart tells Covers. “Since going to Heat -5.5, we’ve seen a bit more money on them at that price, but nothing significant. I imagine we’ll be closing at the current number of 5.5.”
Plenty of San Antonio backers are waving the points and taking the Spurs to win straight up on the moneyline. The Spurs opened as +240 underdogs (Heat -280) at most markets and have been bet down as low as +210.
According to Aron Black of Bet365.com, moneyline wagers on San Antonio are outnumbering those on Miami at a 3:1 rate. Those bettors who are playing Miami’s pricy moneyline are parlaying it with other favorites on Thursday’s sports betting schedule.
“There are most likely a lot of players who if they backed Miami to win the title before Game 6, they are now possibly getting out on San Antonio straight up tonight,” Black tells Covers. “With our NBA Finals series position and our NBA futures position, we are fortunate to be happy with whoever wins the title.”
The total for Game 7 opened at 190 points and has been down to 188, despite the last four games playing over the number. Game 6, however, would have finished under if not for the Heat forcing the overtime period in the dying seconds.
Stewart says sharp money swooped in early on the under and trimmed the total to 188.5 at CarbonSports.ag before the public action showed up on the over, countering the wiseguy wagers.
“Currently we’re seeing more over action than under action, but the under action we booked we respect and we like our position at this point,” he says. “Just over 60 percent of the action is on the over and I believe we’ll eventually go back to 189 at some point later today.”