Spain vs. Portugal is one of the marquee matchups of the World Cup Round of 16, and there are plenty of players who can pop up at any time for a goal on both squads.
La Roja are heavily favored to advance over Portugal, led by striker Mikel Oyarzabal. To no one’s surprise, he and Cristiano Ronaldo are the top choices to be the first player to breach Spain’s defense this tournament.
Kalshi is one of our top prediction market apps, and they’re offering strong returns on their goal scoring market for these players. But there are a few other names that you should be keeping an eye on as well.
Here are my favorite Spain vs Portugal predictions and World Cup picks broken down into two favorites, two values, and two sleepers.
Spain vs Portugal anytime goal scorer picks
| Player |  Probability |
American Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Favorites | ||
 Mikel Oyarzabal |
41% | +144 |
 Cristiano Ronaldo |
39% | +156 |
| Best Values | ||
| Lamine Yamal |
38% | +163 |
| Dani Olmo |
21% | +376 |
| Sleepers | ||
| Marc Cucurella |
7% | +1329 |
| Bruno Fernandes |
15% | +567 |
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My Spain vs Portugal goal scorer predictions: Favorites
Mikel Oyarzabal, Spain
Coming into the Round of 16, Mikel Oyarzabal led all players at the World Cup with 36 touches inside the penalty area. He’s turned that into eight shots on target and four goals.
He’s coming off a brace against Austria, where his movement inside the box set him up for two outstanding scoring chances. He’s got 16 goals in his last 16 starts for Spain and will be the target man in the box in this contest.
Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal
Cristiano Ronaldo finally ended the knockout-stage goal drought that plagued his career, converting a spot kick in Portugal’s controversial win over Croatia.
Ronaldo has three goals in the competition from 15 shots, seven of which he’s put on frame. He’ll be tasked with scoring on a Spanish defense that has yet to concede a goal and has conceded just three shots on target.
My Spain vs Portugal goal scorer predictions: Values
Lamine Yamal, Spain
According to Opta, Lamine Yamal’s 11.2 penalty area touches per 90 minutes are the fourth-most of any player at a World Cup since 1966.
He’s willing to fire from distance early and often, taking six shots against Austria, including two from outside the box. He’s averaging 5.6 shots per 90 minutes and will look to exploit the space left by Nuno Mendes when the Portuguese fullback pushes forward.
Dani Olmo, Spain
Dani Olmo has yet to put a shot on target in this tournament from six efforts, but his 3.16 shots per 90 minutes rank in the 84th percentile of all attacking midfielders.
Olmo repeatedly found himself in dangerous positions against Austria, but was more of a playmaker than a shooter. With Oyarzabal and Yamal picking up more attention, this is a spot where we could see him being a bit more selfish.
My Spain vs Portugal goal scorer predictions: Sleepers
Marc Cucurella, Spain
Marc Cucurella loves to push up from Spain’s left-back position, and he’s logged 14 touches inside the penalty area.
He’s also one of the primary targets at the near post on set pieces for a Spain side with the third-most headed shots in the tournament. Cucurella has two shots on target from inside the six-yard box already, and this price is far too generous to ignore.
Bruno Fernandes, Portugal
It’s been a rough tournament for Bruno Fernandes, who is often having to navigate his preferred area of midfield with Ronaldo dropping back into it.
When Ronaldo stays home or Goncalo Ramos is in the match, he’s suddenly more active. Bruno has eight shots with three on target and is averaging 0.13 xG/shot. This is a really good price for someone who might be taking free kicks as well.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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