With just eight games remaining in the WNBA regular season, Saturday's matchup between the Seattle Storm and the Washington Mystics takes on critical importance. Both teams own identical 18-11 records, and Saturday, July 30 is the first of a two-game set to decide the season tiebreaker, and will likely have significant playoff seeding implications.
Our WNBA picks and predictions for Storm vs. Mystics take a look at the recent play of both teams and highlight why we like the Mystics to cover at home against this formidable Storm squad.
Storm vs Mystics odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The home team Washington Mystics are -3.0 favorites at most books. The total has been steady at 115.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full WNBA odds before placing your bets.
Storm vs Mystics predictions
Predictions made on 7/30/2022 at 1:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Storm vs Mystics info
• Location: Entertainment & Sports Arena, Washington, DC
• Date: Saturday, July 30, 2022
• Tip-off: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Storm vs Mystics betting preview
Key injuries
Storm: No injuries to report.
Mystics: No injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Mystics are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Storm vs. Mystics.
Storm vs Mystics picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
This weekend’s pair of games between the Seattle Storm and the Washington Mystics are about as important as regular season games get. Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning, own identical records, and the season tiebreaker is up for grabs with time winding down on the regular season.
The Seattle Storm have hit a rough patch. They’ve lost three of their last four and are coming off another hard-fought loss to the Sun in Sue Bird’s final game in Connecticut. With a back-to-back against the Mystics, their schedule doesn’t get any easier in near term.
The Mystics, meanwhile, have won three in a row, seven of their last 10, and suddenly have that championship look about them. While Elena Delle-Donne’s health has been a question mark all season, it appears that the Mystics’ decision to err on the side of rest and injury management is beginning to pay dividends. While the “Delle Devil” has only played in 19 games, she’s cleared to go against Seattle for both Saturday and Sunday’s contests.
That’s huge because while Washington is a solid team overall, they’re downright dominant when Delle-Donne is on the floor. She’s been scorching hot from downtown in this recent stretch, shooting 52% from three (13-25) over her last five games and the team is 9.0 points per 100 possessions better when she’s on the court. Another wrinkle she’s added to her game this season has been a renewed focus on leveraging her gravity to create for others. Her 16.8% assist percentage is the highest mark of her career.
In many ways, Breanna Stewart is Elena Delle-Donne’s perfect foil. Similarly skilled, almost as tall, and an even more willing shooter from downtown. While she’s not quite as accurate a shooter as Delle-Donne, she’s the superior rebounder and is better at consistently getting to the foul line. They’re both quality defenders and are uniquely well-suited to guarding one another given their size, agility, and comfort moving on the perimeter. In some ways, they almost neutralize each other.
These teams have similar strengths and weaknesses, but Washington, at this point, has the superior overall guard play. The Mystics have covered in eight of their last nine games and look like world-beaters when Delle-Donne has been available.
Prediction: Mystics -3.0 (-110 at Caesars)
Over/Under analysis
These are the two best defensive teams in the WNBA, and they’re among the slowest as well (the Mystics rank dead last in pace at just 94.41). That’s why, despite this game boasting two All-World scoring talents in Breanna Stewart and Elena Delle-Donne, that this line is so low. But there’s reason to think it’s not low enough.
These teams are mirror images of one another in many ways, which means that both the Storm and the Mystics can feel pretty good about matching up with each other. But there are distinctions in what they emphasize on defense.
The Mystics are adept at defensive rebounding, and by extension, limiting opponent second-chance points. They’re also a dynamic post defense team, and at 30.4 per game, only the Atlanta Dream allow fewer points in the paint. What makes the Mystics special in this regard is, that they’re not just reliant on their bigs to defend inside, their guards and wings also like to mix it up on the interior.
It will be difficult to parse who precisely among the Ariel Atkins, Natasha Cloud, and Alysha Clark trio deserves the All-Defensive team nod at the end of the season, but each of them is a deserving candidate, and all three rank in the Top 10 in defensive win shares.
They’re one of the few teams that has found a workable balance between denying the paint while still making life hard on opposing shooters. They allow only 21.8 opponent threes per game or the fifth-fewest in the “W”. Taken with their paint defense, that means opponents are often forced into veritable bunches of tough, inefficient mid-range shots.
The Storm, meanwhile, are good because their defense is so disciplined. They never foul, and they’re also the best team in the league when it comes to defending in transition. When the ball goes up, they consistently match up, run back hard, and maintain proper floor balance. Just limiting these high-value scoring opportunities on a nightly basis puts them ahead on the ledger by a couple of points before the game even begins.
These two teams hang their hat on the defensive end, and I expect this game will be no different as both the Storm and the Mystics struggle to manufacture easy offense.
Prediction: Under 155.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Best bet
Washington going 8-1 against the spread over its last nine games is impressive, but a trend perhaps just as important for betting this game is that the Storm are just 4-12 in their last 16 road games. The Storm have had their signature wins this season, but all too often they’ve struggled against other contenders.
The Mystics are 14-5 with the “Delle-Devil” in the lineup this season, a 73% winning percentage that would only narrowly trail the league-leading 21-7 Chicago Sky. In other words, when whole, Washington absolutely belongs to be counted among the inner circle of title contenders.
The Mystics have it rolling, and the Storm true to their name, have been a touch tumultuous. I like Washington to cover.
Pick: Mystics -3.0 (-110 at Caesars)
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