The Minnesota Lynx came through with a big second half to steal Game 1, and the Phoenix Mercury returned the favor in Game 2 to even up the series.
My WNBA picks and player props for Lynx vs. Mercury predict a big scoring performance from Napheesa Collier in a low-scoring game on the road.
Lynx vs Mercury predictions
My Lynx vs Mercury best bet: Napheesa Collier Over 21.5 points (-110 via FanDuel)
Up 1-0 at home and leading by as many as 20 points in the second half, the Minnesota Lynx collapsed and let the Phoenix Mercury back in the game.
A timely Sami Whitcomb second-chance three-ball in the waning seconds tied the game, and Napheesa Collier’s turnaround middy on the other end clanked out to end regulation.
Phoenix went on to win the game, and now the Lynx are in a precarious position. If they lose Game 3, they’ll be facing elimination on the road in Game 4. After letting a golden opportunity slip away on Tuesday, I expect the Lynx to come out with their hair on fire.
That starts with the team’s best player.
Collier averaged a career-best 22.9 points this season, and she scored at least 22 in 19 of 33 regular-season appearances. She’s reached that mark in two of four playoff games, including a 24-point outing in Tuesday’s loss.
Phoenix has mostly held Collier in check this season, and Tuesday marked her first game against the Mercury with 22+ points.
Regardless of her scoring deficiencies against Phoenix, I expect Collier to do everything in her power to get the Lynx back in the win column and avoid falling behind in this series.
Lynx vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Napheesa Collier Over 21.5 points
Satou Sabally Over 21.5 points + rebounds
Under 158.5
The Lynx and Mercury went Under in five straight games before Tuesday’s 89-86 OT thriller. Before Minnesota’s epic collapse, the game was headed for another Under, so I’m staying the course and making that bet for Game 3.
There’s no reason to bet the Over when two of the top defenses in the W go head-to-head in what could be a series-swinging matchup.
Satou Sabally averaged 22.2 points+rebounds during the regular season, and she reached that mark in three of four matchups against Minnesota. She’s also hit that mark in three of her last four playoff appearances, including a strong 24/9 performance in Tuesday’s comeback victory.
Playing in a game with such high stakes, count on another stellar effort from Sabally.
Lynx vs Mercury odds
Lynx vs Mercury live odds
Lynx vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota -3.5 (-115) | Phoenix +3.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Minnesota -170 | Phoenix +138
- Over/Under: Over 158.5 (-110) | Under 158.5 (-110)
Lynx vs Mercury trend
Minnesota and Phoenix have hit the Under in five of six head-to-head matchups this season. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Lynx vs Mercury
| Location | PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Friday, September 26, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Lynx vs Mercury latest injuries
Lynx: DiJonai Carrington (Out).
Mercury: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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