Liberty vs Mercury Picks and Predictions: New York Wins Fourth Straight

The Liberty are feeling good, coming off a big second-half comeback against Los Angeles on Wednesday. We like them to keep their winning ways going in a pivotal match against Phoenix tonight. Read more in our Liberty vs. Mercury betting picks.

Last Updated: Aug 6, 2022 3:45 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Sabrina Ionescu New York Liberty WNBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

New York and Phoenix are hanging onto playoff hopes by the skin of their teeth. More than ever, every game matters for both teams.

The winner of tonight's matchup tonight will be positioned for the eighth and final playoff spot with only a few games left to play.

With that said, here are our WNBA picks and predictions for Liberty vs. Mercury on Saturday, August 6.

Liberty vs Mercury odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Liberty opened as 1-point favorites early Saturday morning despite being on the road, and that number ticked up to -2.5 by late morning before settling at -2.0 in the afternoon. The total moved even less, opening at 163.5 before falling to 162.5 at most books.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full WNBA odds before placing your bets.

Liberty vs Mercury predictions

Predictions made on 8/06/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Liberty vs Mercury info

Location: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
Date: Saturday, August 6, 2022
Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: YES, Bally Sports Arizona Extra

Liberty vs Mercury betting preview

Key injuries

Liberty: Betnijah Laney G (Out).
Mercury: Diana Taurasi G (Questionable), Kia Nurse G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Liberty are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Mercury.

Liberty vs Mercury picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

There is an instinct to trust the home side in a game with a spread this tight, but that team hasn't shown any reason to be trusted.

Phoenix is 9-5 outright at home and 8-6 ATS, but two of those wins came against Indiana. Otherwise, the Mercury are just 6-6 ATS at home and 7-5 outright.

Meanwhile, New York is found its footing of late, going 6-4-1 ATS in its last 11. It's important to note that three of those losses came against the WNBA’s best five teams. The Liberty have exceeded expectations when they play winnable games, and facing a Phoenix team with a spread of just one bucket qualifies as just that.

New York should get the job done tonight. 

Prediction: Liberty -2 (-110 at Caesars)

Over/Under analysis

For plenty of reasons, these two teams are mired in a chase for the final playoff spot. Clearly, that will show itself in any of their underlying statistics.

When looking at their offenses and defenses, however, both New York and Phoenix aren't great defensively compared to how they fare at scoring.

The Liberty have a defensive rating over 100.0, while the Mercury are not all that far from last in the league (104.5 defensive rating to 107.8). These units do not hold up well, while the offenses are vaguely decent.

I'll lean towards a higher-scoring affair tonight at the Footprint Center. 

Prediction: Over 162 (-110 at DraftKings)

Best bet

Looking at the five teams chasing the final two playoff spots, the games amongst them matter even more. Yet, Phoenix is 4-6 outright in the last two months against Los Angeles, Minnesota, New York, and Atlanta. The Liberty, meanwhile, are 5-3 outright.

The Mercury have had their chances to secure a playoff gig but have continued to squander them. The Liberty have made the most of those moments, and a two-point spread also comes with a reduced money line.

The 20 percent cost of betting the New York moneyline should be worth dodging the trouble of a one- or two-point result.

Pick: Liberty moneyline (-130 at DraftKings)

WNBA parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s WNBA Liberty vs. Mercury predictions and picks in a single-game parlay, you could win $54.48 on a $10 bet?

Use our WNBA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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