Week 2 in the USFL will continue Saturday afternoon with both the Pittsburgh Maulers and Philadelphia Stars looking for their first win. However, the books are much higher on quarterback Bryan Scott and the Stars, who come into Saturday's meeting as 7-point favorites.
Can the Maulers muster any offense after a Week 1 performance that saw them gain just 3.0 yards per play? Can Scott and the Philly offense move the ball versus a Pittsburgh defense that held Jordan Ta'amu and the Bandits to 2.1 yards per carry last week? Find out in our free USFL picks and predictions for Maulers vs. Stars.
Maulers vs Stars odds
| Pittsburgh Maulers | Philadelphia Stars | |
|---|---|---|
| +7 | Spread | -7 |
| +230 | Moneyline | -280 |
| Over 35 (-110) | Total | Under 35 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of April 22, 2022.
The Stars opened as 6.5 favorites, moved to -6 then hit -7 Friday morning. The total has also been hammered to the Under after opening at 39 and falling four points to 35 as of Friday morning.
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Maulers vs Stars predictions
Predictions made on 4/22/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Maulers vs Stars game info
• Location: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, AL
• Date: Saturday, April 23, 2022
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Maulers at Stars betting preview
Weather
It's looking like a beautiful day for some spring football on Saturday afternoon in Birmingham with temperatures expected in the high-70s with plenty of sunshine.
Key injuries
Maulers: Nico Falah OL (Questionable), Tyson Graham DB (Questionable), Ethan Westbrooks DL (Questionable), Jeffrey Thomas WR (Questionable).
Stars: Matt Colburn RB (Probable), Devin Gray WR (Out), Christian Rowland WR (Out), Artavius Lynn TE (Out), Brennan Eagles WR (Questionable), Case Cookus QB (Out).
Maulers vs Stars picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Traditional football bettors will notice the large spread (PHI -7) and the small total (35 points) and pose the question: Is the spread too long or is the total too short? In our opinion, this spread is too long.
The Stars opened at -6.5, moved to -6, and then jumped quickly to -7 as of Friday morning. Yes, the Pittsburgh offense was horrific in Week 1, averaging just 3.0 yards per play including 3.7 yards per pass attempt, but the defense held the best player in the league in check while the Stars' offense wasn't anything to brag about.
In Week 1, the Stars finished with 246 yards of total offense but in the first four possessions missed a field goal, had an interception, turned the ball over on downs, and had a punt blocked for a safety. QB Bryan Scott had issues with getting his ball knocked down at the line of scrimmage and he could come into this game as a 7-point favorite without some serious weapons.
Receiver Christian Rowland (7/74/0) and running back Devin Gray (2/23/0) have been ruled out after being moved to the inactive roster on Thursday night. Teams only have 45-man rosters, so losing two of your best receivers is very significant, especially for a Philadelphia team that struggled to run the ball in Week 1 gaining just 73 yards on the ground at a 3.5 ypc clip.
Running against the Pittsburgh defense could make for a difficult time moving the sticks for the favorites. The Maulers held Todd Haley's offense to just 2.1 yards per carry, which was the lowest of all eight teams in the opening week. Outside of the opening drive by the Bandits, the Maulers' defense held the Tampa offense to 10 points on the following 12 possessions.
Scott was also banged up late in the fourth quarter of their Week 1 loss and if the Pittsburgh front seven can generate the same amount of QB pressure as it did in Week 1, the undersized Scott could be feeling some pain.
We don't love the Pittsburgh offense, which had some of the worst play-calling last weekend, but this team is committed to running the ball, comes into this matchup relatively healthy, and faces a Philadelphia defense that allowed 4.4 yards per carry and gave up a healthy 321 yards to a suspect New Orleans offense.
We aren't jumping on the Pittsburgh ML, but seven points are too many for the Stars who could struggle to pass the ball with the massive injuries to their pass-catchers. In a game we expect very few points scored and the board's lowest total, we aren't biting on the biggest spread.
Prediction: Maulers +7 (-110 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
Early USFL bettors hammered the opening total of 39 to the Under and we've seen the books adjust as this total has crashed to 35. We projected this game's total at 35.5 so the current number hasn't swung too low for our liking. This game could feature the least amount of offense in Week 2 and even getting five touchdowns could be a stretch.
The Pittsburgh offense went 0-for-3 in the red zone last week and finished with just 186 yards of total offense. First-time head coach Kirby Wilson had an awful offensive game plan and came out of the blocks with seven straight run plays. The Maulers also ran the ball three times on third down with four or more yards to go.
The Maulers didn't even have enough personnel to roll out four-WR sets as they dressed just three WRs. This is a run-first offense that is being run by a head coach with over 20 years of running back coaching duties in the NFL.
The Stars weren't great against the run last week (4.4 yards per carry against), but all it takes is one penalty or a stop in the backfield and this Pittsburgh offense will be in trouble on third and long. Pittsburgh finished 11-for-26 passing last week and Wilson gave more snaps to the QB they drafted second in Josh Love.
Kicking was also awful in Week 1 in the USFL. Kickers finished 4-for-12 and the two longest kicks made were from 47 and 38 yards. The Maulers made their only kick from 28 yards while the Stars made a kick from 38 yards but missed from 45 and 44 yards.
The injuries to the Stars' passing game are also a huge blow to the Over. Gray and Rowland accounted for 13 of the team's 36 targets and nearly 50% of its receiving yards. Teams are not very deep at the skilled positions and missing your first- and third-round receivers is a blow to the passing game.
Both red-zone offenses also struggled to be successful inside the 20-yard line. Pittsburgh went 0-for-3 in the RZ and while the Stars went 1-for-3. Philadelphia also had five three-and-outs over 12 possessions and the Maulers failed to gain at least 10 yards in eight of their 12 offensive drives.
There is a reason this total steamed to the Under but, in our opinion, there is still a little meat left on this bone. We doubt either team scores three touchdowns. Thirty-five is the key number here and we're hopping on the Under before it hits 34.5, which would be a tough number to swallow for the Under. Some books are already at 34.5.
Prediction: Under 35 (-110 at bet365)
Best bet
It's tough to lay seven points in a game the books think there could be less than five total touchdowns scored.
The Pittsburgh defense kept the team in the game on Monday versus Ta'amu and the Bandits. The Maulers made adjustments after a successful first drive from Tampa Bay and bottled up the league's most offensive player for the majority of the game. Ta'amu came into Week 1 as the biggest name in the league and the Maulers held him to 20-for-32 passing for 185 yards and two interceptions.
With another week to work on their offensive system, the anemic Pittsburgh offense could look better and if the Stars can't slow down this run-first offense, the Philly defenders could be sucking wind late in the game which was a running theme in the opening week of the USFL.
If Ta'amu and Haley struggled to put up points versus this Pittsburgh defense, Division III QB Bryan Scott and his backup receivers could have an even more difficult time moving the sticks.
No team should be more than 6.5-point favorites in this league right now as clubs have had just four weeks to put their entire systems in place. If the Maulers can score twice, we doubt the Stars are putting up over 21 points against this defense. With a total of 35, seven points are just too many as we had this spread handicapped at -3.5 following Week 1's results.
Pick: Maulers +7 (-110 at bet365)
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