UFC 295 Jessica Andrade vs Mackenzie Dern Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Over the Hill?

Jessica Andrade and Mackenize Dern prepare to do battle for strawweight supremacy in a featured attraction on the UFC 295 undercard this Saturday, November 11, from Madison Square Garden in New York.

The air is getting thin at the highest levels of the strawweight division, and these two are in dire need of momentum to stay in the orbit of a title shot.

UFC odds have Dern the favorite at -205, while Andrade is a +170 underdog. Here are my free betting picks for Dern vs. Andrade at UFC 295 from New York.

Jessica Andrade vs Mackenzie Dern fight odds

Jessica Andrade vs Mackenzie Dern method of victory odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on November 8, 2023.

Jessica Andrade vs Mackenzie Dern picks

Fight prediction: Dern ML (-205)

Dern has been mixing it up at the top level of the division with varied success, though she looks to have a favorable matchup against Andrade. She’s 3-2 in her last five fights, scoring wins over Nina Nunes, Tecia Torres, and most recently Angela Hill, and was competitive in defeats to Marina Rodriguez and Xionan Yan. She’s slowly climbing up the ladder, while Andrade seems to be tumbling down it.

Things haven’t gone well for Andrade. The former strawweight champion has lost her last three fights, with those losses suggesting she has rapidly regressed since winning the title in 2019. Andrade has been finished in each of her last three fights and is rushing back into the octagon for her fifth fight this year.  

Dern should win this fight, but the odds are close as Andrade is a former champion and still a dangerous striker. Unfortunately, Andrade has looked rough in her last few fights, and the fact that she isn’t taking any time off between contests to refine her game isn't encouraging. One would like to think if she’s dialed in, she could give Dern some problems, but Andrade might be sputtering towards the finishing line of a long MMA stint. 

I’m going with Dern delivering a decisive win that could derail Andrade’s career. 

Prediction: Dern moneyline (-205 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Dern by submission (+120)

Andrade hasn’t looked good in her last three fights, being finished in all three, including two submissions. With Dern’s excellent BJJ skills and a mat-oriented offense, coupled with her decline, this doesn’t look good for the ex-champ. 

Dern is likely to close the distance and clinch with Andrade early on. From there, she’ll score a takedown or pin her up against the cage, putting Andrade in danger. At the same time, Andrade is known for getting finished with nine losses inside the distance.

All signs point to Dern getting a finish against the rapidly declining Andrade, likely by submission.

Pick: Dern to win by submission (+120 at DraftKings)

Jessica Andrade vs Mackenzie Dern betting preview

Dern continues to be on the verge of a breakthrough at strawweight, and fading champion Andrade might just be what she needs. Her defeats at strawweight have come against some of the division’s best fighters, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if she’ll be getting a chance to avenge those losses following a win over Andrade.

Three years ago, Andrade won the strawweight title with the slam heard around the world against Rose Namajunas. It’s been a rocky road following that moment as Andrade has dropped six of her last 10, including three consecutive stoppage defeats. Following a January win over Lauren Murphy, Andrade has the look of a spent fighter.

Dern needs to avoid Andrade’s respectable power and limit her mobility to pursue a submission. Andrade has to hope her power bails her out, and might have a chance as Dern tends to absorb more strikes than she lands. Both competitors are solid finishers, with each having a 50% or better stoppage rate.

Jessica Andrade vs Mackenzie Dern tale of the tape

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