Cleveland @ Philadelphia props

The Browns are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Browns to be the 7th-most pass-focused team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.6% pass rate. The predictive model expects the Browns to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.0 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been something of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (35.0 per game) this year. David Njoku has been one of the top pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 4.8 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 97th percentile.

The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all pass attack stats across the board. Since the start of last season, the formidable Eagles defense has given up a paltry 79.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 10th-lowest rate in the league. The Philadelphia defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-best group of DEs in football this year in regard to rushing the passer.

The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all pass attack stats across the board. Amari Cooper's receiving skills have declined this year, totaling a measly 3.8 adjusted receptions compared to 4.8 last year. Amari Cooper's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 59.0% to 42.6%. The Philadelphia defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-best group of DEs in football this year in regard to rushing the passer.

The Eagles are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 54.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week. Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league. The Browns pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (57.1%) vs. wideouts this year (57.1%).

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to see 131.8 plays on offense run: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week. The Eagles have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 60.5 plays per game. In this week's game, Saquon Barkley is projected by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 84th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.7 targets. With an impressive 3.0 adjusted receptions per game (83rd percentile) this year, Saquon Barkley places among the top RB receiving threats in the NFL. Saquon Barkley's 87.1% Adjusted Catch% this season represents a significant progression in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 72.6% rate.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to see 131.8 plays on offense run: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week. The Eagles have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 60.5 plays per game. Our trusted projections expect Dallas Goedert to accrue 5.9 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 90th percentile among TEs. Dallas Goedert's 47.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 38.4. Dallas Goedert's 6.1 adjusted receptions per game this season conveys a material progression in his pass-catching ability over last season's 4.3 mark.

DeVonta Smith has gone over 4.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Elijah Moore has gone over 2.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Jahan Dotson has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Jerry Jeudy has gone over 3.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.