Las Vegas @ Miami props

The 6th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Dolphins this year (a monstrous 60.1 per game on average). The projections expect Jonnu Smith to notch 5.3 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 86th percentile among tight ends. With a high 16.3% Target Rate (88th percentile) this year, Jonnu Smith has been among the tight ends with the biggest workloads in the league. With a fantastic 3.6 adjusted receptions per game (82nd percentile) this year, Jonnu Smith places among the leading pass-catching TEs in the league. Jonnu Smith's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 71.6% to 76.1%.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to have just 126.4 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week. Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 32.1 per game) this year.

This game's spread implies an extreme passing game script for the Raiders, who are huge -8-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 59.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week. When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Miami's unit has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 7th-worst in the NFL.

The 6th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Dolphins this year (a monstrous 60.1 per game on average). The model projects Devon Achane to notch 6.1 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 98th percentile among RBs. Devon Achane has been much more involved in his offense's pass game this year (17.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (11.5%). Devon Achane's receiving performance has gotten better this year, compiling 4.7 adjusted catches vs just 2.5 last year. Devon Achane's 94.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this season represents a substantial improvement in his receiving proficiency over last season's 75.6% rate.

This game's spread implies an extreme passing game script for the Raiders, who are huge -8-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 59.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week. With a terrific 2.5 adjusted receptions per game (75th percentile) this year, Alexander Mattison stands as one of the top pass-catching running backs in football. Alexander Mattison's 85.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this season represents a meaningful boost in his receiving skills over last season's 71.3% rate. The Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (87.4%) vs. running backs this year (87.4%).

The 6th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Dolphins this year (a monstrous 60.1 per game on average). In this contest, Tyreek Hill is expected by our trusted projection set to land in the 79th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.2 targets. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Las Vegas's unit has been atrocious this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

Michael Mayer has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Malik Washington has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Tre Tucker has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Odell Beckham has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 9 games.

Jaylen Waddle has gone over 3.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.