Arizona @ Miami props

The Dolphins have called the most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 63.0 plays per game. In this week's game, Jonnu Smith is expected by the model to slot into the 81st percentile among TEs with 5.0 targets. Jonnu Smith comes in as one of the best pass-game tight ends this year, averaging an exceptional 3.5 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 84th percentile. Jonnu Smith's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 71.6% to 68.3%. As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Arizona's collection of LBs has been terrible this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in football.

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Dolphins, who are favored by 5 points. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to pass on 53.9% of their plays: the 9th-lowest rate among all teams this week. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency. Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Cardinals, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.7 per game) this year.

This week's spread suggests a passing game script for the Cardinals, who are -5-point underdogs. The leading projections forecast Trey McBride to accrue 7.7 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 95th percentile among tight ends. Trey McBride's 25.7% Target Share this season indicates a remarkable growth in his pass attack workload over last season's 20.0% rate. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Arizona Cardinals grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year. Trey McBride profiles as one of the leading pass-game TEs this year, averaging an outstanding 5.5 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 97th percentile.

This week's spread suggests a passing game script for the Cardinals, who are -5-point underdogs. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Arizona Cardinals grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year. As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Miami's unit has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 5th-worst in football.

At the present time, the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in football (58.1% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Arizona Cardinals. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see only 126.5 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest out of all the games this week. The 3rd-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Arizona Cardinals this year (only 53.0 per game on average). Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 27.5 per game) this year. James Conner's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 86.0% to 77.7%.

The Dolphins have called the most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 63.0 plays per game. In this contest, Tyreek Hill is anticipated by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 94th percentile among wide receivers with 8.8 targets. This year, the porous Arizona Cardinals pass defense has given up a colossal 73.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the worst rate in the NFL. The Arizona cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-worst group of CBs in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Jaylen Waddle has gone over 4.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Michael Wilson has gone over 2.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Greg Dortch has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Raheem Mostert has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.