Jacksonville @ Tennessee props

A running game script is suggested by the Jaguars being a 3.5-point favorite in this game. The leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars to call the 9th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.7 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. This year, the formidable Tennessee Titans defense has allowed a measly 77.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 7th-smallest rate in football.

The model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 64.8% pass rate. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 59.9 plays per game. In this week's contest, Evan Engram is predicted by the projection model to rank in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 8.1 targets. Evan Engram's play as a receiver has improved this year, totaling 6.5 adjusted receptions compared to a measly 4.3 last year. The Titans pass defense has been torched for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (78.3%) versus tight ends this year (78.3%).

The model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 64.8% pass rate. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 59.9 plays per game. With an extraordinary 93.0% Route Participation Rate (91st percentile) this year, Calvin Ridley places as one of the wide receivers with the most usage in football. In this week's contest, Calvin Ridley is projected by the projections to find himself in the 91st percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.1 targets. The Tennessee Titans pass defense has been gouged for the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (71.4%) to wideouts this year (71.4%).

This week's spread implies a throwing game script for the Titans, who are -3.5-point underdogs. The Jaguars defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (37.4 per game) this year. The model projects Chigoziem Okonkwo to accumulate 5.9 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 90th percentile among tight ends. Chigoziem Okonkwo's 16.5% Target Rate this season indicates a significant boost in his pass game utilization over last season's 10.8% rate. Chigoziem Okonkwo's 3.2 adjusted receptions per game this season represents a noteable improvement in his receiving skills over last season's 2.2 mark.

This week's spread implies a throwing game script for the Titans, who are -3.5-point underdogs. The Jaguars defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (37.4 per game) this year. The predictive model expects DeAndre Hopkins to total 9.8 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile when it comes to wideouts. DeAndre Hopkins's 73.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) ranks among the best in the league: 97th percentile for WRs. The Jaguars pass defense has given up the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.2%) to wide receivers this year (67.2%).

Zay Jones has gone over 3.5 in 6 of his last 9 games.

Tyjae Spears has gone over 3.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.