Duke Blue Devils

Picks

The Blue Devils have been one of the worst teams in the tournament at taking care of the basketball and hitting outside shots. Much of Duke’s offensive output has come via second-chance opportunities, something St. John’s can limit.

The Blue Devils throw up roadblocks on transition attacks and suck them into slower paces, living life in the halfcourt – not a strength of the Red Storm. St. John’s shot surprisingly well from deep in the first week, but that heat will quickly cool, especially against Duke’s perimeter patrol. Duke limits opponents’ offensive rebounds and is No. 2 in defensive FT rate, which takes away two areas of offense for St. John’s. The Red Storm depend on getting to the foul line and second-chance points. Offensively, the Blue Devils are reluctant to run and turn down the tempo, sapping seconds off the shot clock which limits touches for the Johnnies.

Duke will likely still be without starting point guard Caleb Foster for the Sweet 16. Fill-in Cayden Boozer struggles with ball pressure — which St. John’s brings consistently and relentlessly — meaning the offensive generation will fall on Cameron Boozer’s shoulders more than ever. 

Call him Atlas — he leads the team in assist rate (26%) and will have increased facilitating opportunities in a pace-up spot against a Red Storm team ranking 69th in adjusted tempo. 

Boozer is averaging 5.0 assists across his last seven games and forecasts to have at least an average day given the bump in volume due to usage rate and pace. 

Ngongba returned for 13 big minutes in the Round of 32, finishing with four points, four rebounds and four assists. The extended break between rounds now has him healthy and ready for more minutes, as a crucial part of beating St. John’s size. The 6-foot-11 center is great inside but is valuable as a stretch forward operating out of the high post and creating space for Cameron Boozer under the rim. He’s an excellent passer with two or more assists in 11 of the last 14 games and projections lean toward two dimes as his minutes tick up.

Bryce Hopkins isn’t known as a 3-point threat but the Red Storm senior forward is feeling it from deep in the postseason. He knocked down six triples in the win over Kansas and has made at least two 3-pointers in each of his last three games. The Blue Devils interior defense is great, especially when they go zone, so the Johnnies have to stretch Duke out with bigs on the perimeter. There is a massive pricing discrepancy in Hopkins’ 3-point props, with some books listed Over 1.5 at -135. Given his newfound confidence from deep, I’ll take this plus-money payout. 

St. John’s full-court pressure is pesky but can be broken. Too often point guards who aggressively attack the Johnnies pressure can break away and have a clear look down the lane. Kansas PG Melvin Council did this a few times on Sunday. Cayden Boozer had a quiet scoring day vs. TCU, putting up only nine points but left the work to his brother and the Duke frontcourt. Against the Red Storm, the Blue Devils will count on him not to play passive as the forwards have their hands full with the Johnnies’ athletic big men. Look for a “fastbreak” press break leading Cayden to the rim.