LA Clippers

Picks

One of the best ways to try to bother Nikola Jokic is to make him work on the defensive end of the court. Ivica Zubac has done that in this series, averaging 18.75 points and 11.5 rebounds. Zubac can do only so much on defense against Jokic. So LA should emphasize its own Eastern European big man on offense, an attempt to wear out Jokic just a touch. Zubac was an efficient 9-of-14 in Game 4, scoring 19 points and grabbing 12 rebounds. An added workload does not worry him. He has enjoyed an increasing role this season. Leaning on that tonight serves the Clippers on both ends of the court.

Believing in Nikola Jokic to recreate his Game 4 efficiency starts with recognizing this is the last long break in the round for Jokic. Three days off between games is an edge for a team with little-to-no bench, needing its superstar to probably play 43+ minutes for the fourth time out of five games. Jokic is aware enough to recognize Game 6 is on Thursday and, if necessary, Game 7 will be on Saturday. A loss tonight would set up an uphill climb too steep for these Nuggets. Jokic needs to take matters into his own hands, just as he did a year ago in a pivotal Game 5.

Jokic was a force of nature on the boards in Game 4 and while I don’t think he snatches that many rebounds in Game 5, there’s no way I’m taking the Under on his rebounding prop at this point. Los Angeles has no answer for him, especially when it goes small and throws Ben Simmons into the mix at center. The Clippers also used zone looks during the second half of Game 4 and that opens a different can of worms when it comes to boxing out. Jokic was able to take advantage with four of his five offensive rebounds coming in the second half. With the series swinging back to Denver, the Clippers’ shooting numbers should take a hit and the thin air inside Ball Arena could make L.A.’s legs heavy in the second half, leading to more misses and rebounding opportunities. The majority of Jokic’s Game 5 forecasts sit at 12.5 rebounds or higher with a ceiling of 14.6 boards.

Kris Dunn isn’t an offensive force by any means, but it’s his defense and rebounding that’s so valuable to Los Angeles. He’s been a beast on the glass in this series (23 total rebounds) and has been vital in bottling up Denver guard Jamal Murray. Game 5 projections aren’t shying away from Dunn’s minutes after a bad showing in Game 4, with most pegging him for around 25 minutes. And within that action, those models are bullish on Dunn’s assists and rebounds. His assists forecasts range from 2.7 to 4.1 tonight while his rebounding predictions sits between 3.2 and 4.0 boards. Even at the low end of those projections, Dunn is topping his combo total of 4.5 Assists + Rebounds. My numbers come out to just shy of three dimes and 3.4 rebounds, which should have the Over 4.5 Assists + Rebounds prop priced closer to -250. But you can find +110 at bet365.

Norman Powell has an outstanding regular season for the Clips. He averaged a career-best 21.8 points per game as he stepped into a full-time starter role. While he struggled through Games 1 and 2 with only 25 points combined, the UCLA product has started to find his best form lately.  Powell dropped 20 in the huge Game 3 victory, then also posted 22 in Saturday’s loss, evidently cashing the Over in both games.