Denver @ Miami Picks & Props

Nikola Jokic has accumulated 4.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games while on the road, 1.1 more than he's accumulated over the course of the year on the road. The matchup vs. Miami is a challenging one; when the Heat are at home, they have allowed the 13th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting Cs this year (11.5). The Denver Nuggets have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 15 games on the road. The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Nuggets. The Denver Nuggets check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Aaron Gordon has sunk 56.1% of his shot attempts from the field this year, ranking him in the 88th percentile among all players in the league. Aaron Gordon has shot and missed 1.6 3-point shots per game this season, significantly less than his 2.3 mark last season. Aaron Gordon has tallied 36.5 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 5.7 more than he's tallied in all games this season. The Denver Nuggets check in as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage. The Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

The matchup vs. the Nuggets is a good one; they have allowed the 30th-most points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting PFs over the last 20 games (21.3). The Miami Heat check in as the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 7 games on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists). Kevin Love has sunk 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 10 games at home, 15.6% higher than he's made in all games this year while on his home court. The matchup against the Nuggets may be a strong one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted an enormous 5.8 free throws per game over the last 20 games (30th-most in the league). Kevin Love will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on your home court generally raises stat production in all facets of the game.

The matchup vs. the Heat is a hard one for scoring; the opposition's starting PGs have totaled the 14th-least shots made from the field per game in the league this year (5.9). The Denver Nuggets have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 15 games on the road. The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Nuggets. The Denver Nuggets check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists). The matchup against the Heat may be a challenging one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting PGs have attempted a mere 2.2 free throws per game over the last 5 games (7th-least in the NBA).

Gabe Vincent has accumulated 3.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 1.3 higher than he's accumulated in all games this year at home. The Miami Heat have been the lowest scoring offense in the league this year. The matchup against the Nuggets is a hard one; they have given up the 11th-least points per game in the league to the other team's starting PGs over the last 20 games (13.9). The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace in the league over the last 15 games. The Nuggets have played at the 3rd-slowest pace in the league over the last 15 games away from their home stadium, which should decrease possessions for the Heat.

Caleb Martin has committed 3.0 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games on his home court, 0.8 more than he's committed in all games this season at home. The Miami Heat have been the lowest scoring offense in the league this year. The matchup against the Nuggets is a tough one; they have given up the 13th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting SFs this year (13.5). The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace in the league over the last 15 games. The Nuggets have played at the 3rd-slowest pace in the league over the last 15 games away from their home stadium, which should decrease possessions for the Heat.

Jimmy Butler has posted 29.3 points per game over the last 10 games playing at home, 4.1 more than he's posted in all games this year at home. Jimmy Butler has successfully made 1.8 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 higher than he's converted from 3-point range in all games this season. Jimmy Butler has averaged 39.6 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 5.2 higher than he's averaged overall this year. The Miami Heat check in as the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 7 games on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists). Jimmy Butler has attempted 8.6 foul shots per game this year, ranking in the 99th percentile among all players in the league.

Kyle Lowry has sunk 50.0% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games, 7.4% higher than he's converted overall this year. Kyle Lowry has averaged 29.0 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 76th percentile. The Miami Heat check in as the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 7 games on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists). Kyle Lowry has converted 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 11.5% more than he's put through the hoop in all games this year. Kyle Lowry will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing in your home stadium usually raises player production for all stats.

Bam Adebayo has attempted 17.2 shots from the field per game over the last 5 games, 2.5 higher than he's attempted over the course of the season. Bam Adebayo has tallied 41.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 6.6 more than he's tallied over the course of the year. The Miami Heat check in as the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 7 games on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists). Bam Adebayo has sunk 88.8% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 10.9% higher than he's made overall this season. The matchup vs. the Nuggets may be a positive one for getting to the free throw line; the opposition's starting Cs have attempted an enormous 5.1 free throws per game over the last 10 games (29th-most in the NBA).

Max Strus has attempted 6.6 shots from downtown per game with the home court advantage this year, putting him in the 92nd percentile among all players in the league. The Miami Heat check in as the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 7 games on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists). Max Strus has converted 1.9 free throws per game over the last 10 games at home, 0.9 more than he's put through the net over the course of the year when playing at home. Max Strus will enjoy the home court advantage in this contest. Playing at home usually increases player production across the board.

Michael Porter Jr. has gone over 11.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Duncan Robinson has gone over 6.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Jeff Green has gone over 4.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has gone over 7.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Christian Braun has gone over 4.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.