St. Louis @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

Yandy Diaz has gone under 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for batters. Nathan Church will have the handedness advantage against Ryan Pepiot in today's game. Nathan Church has displayed some good exit velocity indicators recently, averaging 99.5-mph on his flyballs in the last week.

The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for batters. Jose Fermin has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .255 rate is quite a bit lower than his .281 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Everson Pereira's BABIP skill is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for batters. Everson Pereira will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Liberatore today. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense profiles as the 4th-worst out of every team in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 82nd percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for batters. Jordan Walker has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.8-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 92.3-mph EV. Jordan Walker has been unlucky this year, compiling a .269 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .309 — a .040 deviation.

Matthew Liberatore will hold the platoon advantage over Chandler Simpson today. Chandler Simpson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup. In the last two weeks, Chandler Simpson's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal EV of 80 mph to 71.6 mph. Over the last week, Chandler Simpson's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 8.1%. Despite posting a .307 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Chandler Simpson has been lucky given the .014 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .293.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Willson Contreras ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for batters. Willson Contreras has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 99-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 90.9-mph figure.

Nolan Gorman has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (75% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for batters. Nolan Gorman will have the handedness advantage against Ryan Pepiot today. Nolan Gorman pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.1% — 83rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for batters. Pedro Pages has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Junior Caminero ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Junior Caminero is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for batters. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Junior Caminero will have an advantage in today's matchup.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for batters. Brandon Lowe pulls many of his flyballs (34.4% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Thomas Saggese in the 95th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for batters. Thomas Saggese has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Thomas Saggese has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 6.2% seasonal rate to 12.1% over the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 80th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Masyn Winn is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for batters. Masyn Winn has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 92.7-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal average of 89.5-mph.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for batters. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have the upper hand in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for batters. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Alec Burleson will have the upper hand in today's game.

The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for batters. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Nick Fortes will have an advantage in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense profiles as the 4th-worst out of every team in action today. Nick Fortes will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

Ivan Herrera's batting average talent is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ivan Herrera is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for batters. Ivan Herrera has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Christopher Morel ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for batters. Batting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Christopher Morel will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

Carson Williams's BABIP skill is projected in the 89th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for batters. Batting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Carson Williams will have an edge today. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense profiles as the 4th-worst out of every team in action today.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.