Pittsburgh @ St. Louis props

Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly connected with cold weather, and the weather forecast for this matchup calls for the 8th-lowest temperature on the slate today at 59°. In today's matchup, Brendan Donovan is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.8% rate (85th percentile). The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense projects as the 3rd-best out of all the teams in action today. Despite posting a .377 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Brendan Donovan has had positive variance on his side given the .040 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .337.

15% of the time that Alec Burleson has started against a righty hurler this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly connected with cold weather, and the weather forecast for this matchup calls for the 8th-lowest temperature on the slate today at 59°. In today's matchup, Alec Burleson is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.5% rate (82nd percentile). The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense projects as the 3rd-best out of all the teams in action today. Alec Burleson has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 6.6% rate last year has fallen to 1.4% this year.

The 2nd-deepest right field fences in the majors are found in Busch Stadium. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly connected with cold weather, and the weather forecast for this matchup calls for the 8th-lowest temperature on the slate today at 59°. Oneil Cruz will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 94th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Bryan Reynolds will get to bat from his good side against Miles Mikolas in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 15th-worst among every team today. Bryan Reynolds has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.4-mph average to last season's 94.1-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Bart in the 79th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Joey Bart is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 15th-worst among every team today. Joey Bart's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 43.1% to 52.8%. Sporting a .348 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Joey Bart has performed in the 87th percentile.

Nolan Gorman will have the handedness advantage against Carmen Mlodzinski in today's game... and moreover, Mlodzinski has a large platoon split. Extreme groundball bats like Nolan Gorman generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Carmen Mlodzinski. Nolan Gorman is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#2-worst of all teams on the slate today). Nolan Gorman will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Nolan Gorman's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, going from 42.5% on the season to 50% over the last week.

Ke'Bryan Hayes's batting average talent is projected to be in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 15th-worst among every team today. Ke'Bryan Hayes's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 41.8% to 46.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Andrew McCutchen is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Andrew McCutchen hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 15th-worst among every team today. Over the last 7 days, Andrew McCutchen's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.3% up to 30.8%.

The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 15th-worst among every team today. Alexander Canario has hit one of the hardest balls in MLB in the past week's worth of games — 110.6-mph — which is a strong indicator of recent form and raw power.

Jared Triolo's BABIP skill is projected in the 77th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 15th-worst among every team today. Jared Triolo's launch angle lately (35.3° in the past 14 days) is a considerable increase over his 22.2° seasonal mark. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Jared Triolo has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .266 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .292.

Tommy Pham hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Hitters such as Tommy Pham with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Miles Mikolas who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 15th-worst among every team today. Tommy Pham has been unlucky this year, putting up a .210 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .306 — a .096 discrepancy.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lars Nootbaar is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game. Lars Nootbaar will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carmen Mlodzinski today... and even more favorably, Mlodzinski has a large platoon split. Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Lars Nootbaar will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

Adam Frazier will hold the platoon advantage over Miles Mikolas in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 15th-worst among every team today. Adam Frazier has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 85.1-mph to 87.4-mph in the last week's worth of games. Adam Frazier's launch angle recently (18.3° in the last week) is considerably higher than his 13.4° seasonal mark. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.241) provides evidence that Adam Frazier has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .209 actual batting average.

Considering Carmen Mlodzinski's large platoon split, Victor Scott II will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Victor Scott II will hold that advantage in today's game. Victor Scott II has made substantial strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 5.9% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the last 7 days. Victor Scott II's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, going from 20.6% on the season to 28.6% over the last 7 days.

Enmanuel Valdez is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. Batting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Enmanuel Valdez will have an edge in today's matchup. Enmanuel Valdez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 15th-worst among every team today. Over the last 7 days, Enmanuel Valdez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.9% up to 16.7%.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 4th in the lineup today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Nolan Arenado has exhibited good plate discipline since the start of last season, ranking in the 85th percentile with a 1.78 K/BB rate. Checking in at the 81st percentile, Nolan Arenado has put up a .269 batting average since the start of last season.

Pedro Pages will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Willson Contreras is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. Willson Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage in today's game. Willson Contreras has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.9-mph average to last year's 95.1-mph average.

Jose Barrero has gone over 0.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.