Tampa Bay @ Boston Picks & Props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most suitable for pitching on the slate today. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for pitchers. Kutter Crawford will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yandy Diaz in today's game. Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Yandy Diaz in today's game.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most suitable for pitching on the slate today. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for pitchers. Jarren Duran's exit velocity on flyballs has declined in recent games; his 94-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 91.8-mph over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 87th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The #4 park in MLB for boosting base hits to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Jose Siri pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.9% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the weakest out of all the teams playing today. Jose Siri has been very good at hitting the ball to all fields (a crucial ability for batting average), grading out in the 76th percentile in THE BAT X's Spray Score this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. The #4 park in MLB for boosting base hits to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Romy Gonzalez has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Romy Gonzalez will hold that advantage today. Romy Gonzalez has made big strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 8.9% seasonal rate to 18.8% in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 77th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Triston Casas is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in MLB for left-handed BABIP. Batting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Triston Casas will have an edge today. Triston Casas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in MLB for left-handed BABIP. Nick Sogard pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Nick Sogard will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Nick Sogard has made substantial strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 2.1% seasonal rate to 8.3% in the last week's worth of games. Nick Sogard's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, increasing from 18.8% on the season to 33.3% in the last week.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in MLB for left-handed BABIP. Fenway Park has the 2nd-shallowest RF fences in the majors. Wilyer Abreu will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shane Baz today. Wilyer Abreu will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Masataka Yoshida's batting average skill is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Masataka Yoshida is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in MLB for left-handed BABIP. Masataka Yoshida will hold the platoon advantage over Shane Baz in today's game. Masataka Yoshida hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Junior Caminero is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game. The #4 park in MLB for boosting base hits to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Junior Caminero hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Hitters such as Junior Caminero with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Kutter Crawford who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Fenway Park has the shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league parks. Ceddanne Rafaela will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Ceddanne Rafaela's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (26.1° in the past two weeks) is significantly better than his 17.7° seasonal figure. Ceddanne Rafaela has done a favorable job optimizing his launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls. His 17.7° angle is among the highest in MLB this year (91st percentile).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 76th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Jonathan Aranda is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in MLB for left-handed BABIP. Fenway Park has the 2nd-shallowest RF fences in the majors. Hitting from the opposite that Kutter Crawford throws from, Jonathan Aranda will have an edge in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vaughn Grissom in the 87th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. The #4 park in MLB for boosting base hits to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Vaughn Grissom has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Vaughn Grissom will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Utilizing Statcast data, Vaughn Grissom grades out in the 87th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .273.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in MLB for left-handed BABIP. Fenway Park has the 2nd-shallowest RF fences in the majors. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the weakest out of all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in MLB for left-handed BABIP. Ben Rortvedt will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kutter Crawford in today's game. Ben Rortvedt is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox only has 1 same-handed RP. Ben Rortvedt has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the weakest out of all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in MLB for left-handed BABIP. Brandon Lowe will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kutter Crawford in today's game. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Christopher Morel ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. The #4 park in MLB for boosting base hits to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Christopher Morel pulls many of his flyballs (38.3% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the weakest out of all the teams playing today.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today. The #4 park in MLB for boosting base hits to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Tyler O'Neill pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.5% — 90th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Tyler O'Neill will hold that advantage today.

Trevor Story is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game. The #4 park in MLB for boosting base hits to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Fenway Park has the shallowest left field dimensions in the league. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Trevor Story will hold that advantage today. In the last week, Trevor Story's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7% up to 16.7%.

The #4 park in MLB for boosting base hits to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Danny Jansen pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.2% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Danny Jansen will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 78th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. The #4 park in MLB for boosting base hits to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Fenway Park has the shallowest left field dimensions in the league. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Connor Wong will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the last two weeks, Connor Wong has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 27° compared to his seasonal mark of 14.5°.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.