Houston @ Cincinnati Picks & Props

Nick Martinez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yainer Diaz in today's game. Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Yainer Diaz in today's game. In the last week's worth of games, Yainer Diaz's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8% down to 0%. Yainer Diaz's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, going from 21.6% to 11.7%. Yainer Diaz's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased of late, falling from 11.7% on the season to 0% in the last week.

Hitting from the same side that Nick Martinez throws from, Alex Bregman encounters a tough challenge in today's matchup. Today, Alex Bregman is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.3% rate (82nd percentile). Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Alex Bregman in today's matchup. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Alex Bregman's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal average of 90.4 mph to 88.2 mph. Alex Bregman has posted a .274 BABIP this year, checking in at the 23rd percentile.

As it relates to his BABIP ability, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game. The #6 field in baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest RF dimensions in the majors. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 83°.

Jeremy Pena has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (66% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup. Nick Martinez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jeremy Pena in today's game. Jeremy Pena will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. Jeremy Pena's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined lately, falling from 42.1% on the season to 30% in the last two weeks' worth of games. With a 4.35 K/BB rate this year, Jeremy Pena has demonstrated bad plate discipline, checking in at the 14th percentile.

T.J. Friedl is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game. The #6 field in baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. Hitting from the opposite that Spencer Arrighetti throws from, T.J. Friedl will have an edge today. T.J. Friedl pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.5% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Nick Martinez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Altuve in today's game. Jose Altuve will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today. In the past week's worth of games, Jose Altuve's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.8% down to 0%. When it comes to his batting average, Jose Altuve has had positive variance on his side this year. His .294 mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .273.

In today's game, Yordan Alvarez is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.7% rate (89th percentile). Yordan Alvarez will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. Yordan Alvarez has been very fortunate when it comes to his batting average this year; his .313 BA is quite a bit higher than his .289 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Amed Rosario as the 16th-best hitter in baseball when estimating his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 6th-best venue in the majors for RHB batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. Batters such as Amed Rosario with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Spencer Arrighetti who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Amed Rosario will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The #6 field in baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. Jake Fraley will hold the platoon advantage against Spencer Arrighetti today. Jake Fraley pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.9% — 81st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Jake Fraley will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 88th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Tyler Stephenson is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 6th-best venue in the majors for RHB batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. Tyler Stephenson has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan India in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Jonathan India is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 6th-best venue in the majors for RHB batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. Jonathan India pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.3% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Spencer Steer ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Spencer Steer is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 6th-best venue in the majors for RHB batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.9% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chas McCormick in the 79th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. Chas McCormick has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Out of every team today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds. Chas McCormick has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last season's 28.09 ft/sec to 28.73 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 83rd percentile when assessing his batting average talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 6th-best venue in the majors for RHB batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. Mauricio Dubon has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Out of every team today, the 4th-worst outfield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ty France in the 84th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 6th-best venue in the majors for RHB batting average. The 5th-shallowest left field fences in Major League Baseball are found in Great American Ball Park. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. Ty France will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The #6 field in baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park. Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest RF dimensions in the majors. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. Ben Gamel will hold the platoon advantage against Nick Martinez in today's matchup. Out of every team today, the 4th-worst outfield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Santiago Espinal in the 86th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 6th-best venue in the majors for RHB batting average. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is projected to have the 2nd-hottest temperature of the day at 83°. Santiago Espinal has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Santiago Espinal will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Victor Caratini has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Noelvi Marte has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Zach Dezenzo has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.