Tampa Bay @ Los Angeles Picks & Props

Dylan Carlson is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Dodger Stadium has the 8th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. Dylan Carlson's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (22.7°) is considerably higher than his 15° angle last year. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Dylan Carlson's true offensive ability to be a .307, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .037 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .270 wOBA.

Gavin Lux's BABIP skill is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. Gavin Lux hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball bats like Gavin Lux are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tyler Alexander. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Gavin Lux will hold that advantage today.

Junior Caminero's batting average skill is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Junior Caminero is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. Dodger Stadium has the 8th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. In the last two weeks, Junior Caminero's maximum exit velocity (a strong indicator of recent form and raw power) has been 116.3-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in the game.

Hitting from the same side that Tyler Alexander throws from, Freddie Freeman will be in a tough position in today's game. Among every team on the slate today, the 4th-strongest infield defense is that of the the Tampa Bay Rays.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Dodger Stadium as the 3rd-best park in the majors for home runs. Dodger Stadium has the shortest fence height (on average) in the majors. Batting from the same side that Tyler Alexander throws from, Shohei Ohtani will have a tough challenge today. Among every team on the slate today, the 4th-strongest infield defense is that of the the Tampa Bay Rays. Over the past two weeks, Shohei Ohtani's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 20% down to 14.6%.

Extreme groundball batters like Mookie Betts tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Tyler Alexander. Among every team on the slate today, the 4th-strongest infield defense is that of the the Tampa Bay Rays. Mookie Betts has struggled with his Barrel%; his 12.5% rate last season has lowered to 5.7% this year. Mookie Betts's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (13.5°) is quite a bit lower than his 18.6° mark last year. In the past 7 days, Mookie Betts's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 17.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tommy Edman in the 85th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Dodger Stadium has the 8th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. The switch-hitting Tommy Edman will get to bat from his strong side (0) today against Tyler Alexander. Bats such as Tommy Edman with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Tyler Alexander who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Jose Siri's BABIP skill is projected in the 90th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Dodger Stadium has the 8th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. Jose Siri has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 14.9% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past week's worth of games. Jose Siri has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.8-mph average to last season's 94-mph average.

When estimating his BABIP skill, Teoscar Hernandez is projected as the 9th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Teoscar Hernandez is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. Teoscar Hernandez will have the handedness advantage against Tyler Alexander in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Teoscar Hernandez will hold that advantage today.

Hitting from the same side that Bobby Miller throws from, Yandy Diaz faces a tough challenge today. Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.6%) and will be challenged by MLB's 8th-deepest RF fences in today's game. The Los Angeles Dodgers infield defense projects as the 5th-strongest among every team today. Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Yandy Diaz today. Yandy Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has declined recently; his 92.2-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 89.4-mph over the past week.

Dodger Stadium has the 8th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums. Bats such as Kevin Kiermaier with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Tyler Alexander who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Kevin Kiermaier will hold that advantage in today's matchup. This season, Kevin Kiermaier has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 91 mph compared to last year's 87.4 mph mark. Kevin Kiermaier has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 101.9-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal average of 91-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. Brandon Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Bobby Miller today. Brandon Lowe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 81st percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Christopher Morel is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. Dodger Stadium has the 8th-shallowest centerfield fences among all stadiums. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. As it relates to his batting average, Christopher Morel has experienced some negative variance this year. His .194 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .220.

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. Kike Hernandez will have the handedness advantage over Tyler Alexander in today's game. Kike Hernandez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Kike Hernandez will hold that advantage in today's game. Kike Hernandez has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 89.8-mph average to last season's 87.8-mph mark.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Max Muncy will hold that advantage in today's game. Max Muncy has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 12% seasonal rate to 28.6% in the last 7 days. Max Muncy has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 104.2-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal mark of 95.1-mph. There has been a significant improvement in Max Muncy's launch angle from last season's 21.8° to 27° this season. By putting up a .361 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Max Muncy finds himself in the 92nd percentile.

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. Miguel Rojas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Alexander today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Miguel Rojas will hold that advantage today. Miguel Rojas's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, going from 42.6% on the season to 61.5% in the past week. As it relates to plate discipline, Miguel Rojas's ability is quite strong, posting a 1.83 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 83rd percentile.

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. Rob Brantly will have the handedness advantage against Bobby Miller today. Rob Brantly hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. Taylor Walls hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Compared to his seasonal average of 18.7°, Taylor Walls has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 26.3° angle over the last 14 days. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Taylor Walls's true offensive skill to be a .284, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .042 gap between that figure and his actual .242 wOBA. Taylor Walls has displayed favorable plate discipline this year, ranking in the 90th percentile with a 1.69 K/BB rate.

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 4th-strongest of the day for hitters. Alex Jackson hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 9th-shallowest CF fences today. Alex Jackson has been unlucky this year, compiling a .196 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .277 — a .081 gap.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.