Arizona @ Boston Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Corbin Carroll is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB base hits. Corbin Carroll will hold the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello today... and moreover, Bello has a large platoon split. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Corbin Carroll can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which generally leads to less offense. In the past 14 days, Jarren Duran's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal figure of 93.7 mph to 90.8 mph. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jarren Duran's true offensive ability to be a .336, suggesting that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .032 difference between that figure and his actual .368 wOBA.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which generally leads to less offense. Considering Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will be at a colossal disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in today's game. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. In the last two weeks, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (5.2°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 12.4°. As it relates to his batting average, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has experienced some positive variance this year. His .274 rate has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .258.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which generally leads to less offense. Extreme groundball bats like Jake McCarthy tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello. Jake McCarthy will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. Jake McCarthy's launch angle in recent games (6.7° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is considerably lower than his 11.7° seasonal mark. Despite posting a .361 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jake McCarthy has been very fortunate given the .053 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .308.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB base hits. Considering Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Adrian Del Castillo will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today. Adrian Del Castillo will probably have an edge against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox has just 1 same-handed RP. Adrian Del Castillo has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joc Pederson in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Joc Pederson is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB base hits. Considering Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Joc Pederson will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game. The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Joc Pederson has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Bell in the 83rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Josh Bell is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB base hits. Josh Bell has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 83rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Triston Casas is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB base hits. Hitting from the opposite that Ryne Nelson throws from, Triston Casas will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Triston Casas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Rafael Devers projects as the 16th-best batter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB base hits. Rafael Devers will hold the platoon advantage against Ryne Nelson in today's game. Rafael Devers has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB base hits. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions among all major league stadiums. David Hamilton will have the handedness advantage against Ryne Nelson in today's game. David Hamilton will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 15°, David Hamilton has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 24.3° angle over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB base hits. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF dimensions among all major league stadiums. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today. This season, Geraldo Perdomo has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 89.4 mph compared to last year's 87.1 mph mark. Geraldo Perdomo's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls lately (20.4° over the past 14 days) is quite a bit higher than his 13° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB base hits. Masataka Yoshida will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryne Nelson in today's game. Masataka Yoshida has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Masataka Yoshida will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 95th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Rob Refsnyder is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The #5 field in the league for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The shallowest left field fences among all major league parks are found in Fenway Park. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Rob Refsnyder will hold that advantage today.

Among all parks, Fenway Park's centerfield fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Connor Wong will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Connor Wong has recorded a .348 BABIP this year, grading out in the 95th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB base hits. Wilyer Abreu will have the handedness advantage over Ryne Nelson in today's matchup. Wilyer Abreu hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. The #5 field in the league for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The shallowest left field fences among all major league parks are found in Fenway Park. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage today. Ceddanne Rafaela has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.7-mph to 91.4-mph in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. The #5 field in the league for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Tyler O'Neill pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.6% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Tyler O'Neill will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 5th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB base hits. Luis Guillorme will hold the platoon advantage over Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and even better, Bello has a large platoon split. Luis Guillorme may have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox only has 1 same-handed RP. Luis Guillorme has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. The #5 field in the league for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Eugenio Suarez pulls many of his flyballs (37.1% — 94th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball hitters like Eugenio Suarez tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.

The #5 field in the league for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (42.8% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Danny Jansen will hold that advantage in today's game. Danny Jansen's launch angle this season (22.7°) is quite a bit higher than his 19.5° angle last year. Sporting a 1.53 K/BB rate this year, Danny Jansen has displayed impressive plate discipline, placing in the 92nd percentile.

Kevin Newman has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.