The market suggests the Champions League final on May 30 is likely to be a showdown between Arsenal and PSG. With the semifinal second legs yet to be played, however, there are plenty more twists and turns to encounter before we go down to the final two.
Fans of historic patterns may like to note that six of the last eight Champions League semifinal second legs have had Over 2.5 goals in 90 minutes.
Will this week’s games fit into the trend? Read my UEFA Champions League best bets to find out.
UEFA Champions League weekly picks and best bets for semifinal leg 2
Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid Over 3.5 corners (-114 at Sports Interaction)
This tie looks beautifully balanced after a 1-1 draw in last week’s first leg, but Arsenal will rightly believe they are in the driving seat.
Arsenal are -159 to win in 90 minutes, and -333 to qualify. Both prices will be too short to hold much appeal for many people looking for an angle on the game.
Instead, consider the +150 on Arsenal-Arsenal on the halftime and full-time market. The hosts are likely to try to replicate the fast start that put them in control on Saturday.
My main selection is on Atletico Madrid on the corners market. Diego Simeone’s players emphatically won the corners head-to-head vs. Arsenal (6-1) last week, and managed 11 corners (four in the first leg, seven in the second leg) in their 7-5 playoff aggregate victory over Arsenal’s North London rivals Tottenham Hotspur in March.
- Date: Tuesday, May 5
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Emirates Stadium, London, England
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Bayern Munich vs PSG
PSG Over 1.5 total goals (-120 at Sports Interaction)
Were you entertained, folks? Last week’s 5-4 thriller at Parc des Princes has gone down not only in Champions League history but as one of the greatest football games ever played.
Will Europe's top two teams (sorry, Arsenal) serve up an encore that has us perched as excitedly on the edge of our seats this time around? Asking for another 5-4 humdinger may be too much, but the chances of stacking more entertainment, drama, and skill are good.
PSG will defend their one-goal lead the only way they know how: by attacking at high tempo. The visitors' daring approach is why the main selection is PSG Over 1.5 goals at -120.
Given how they played last week, it's hard to see PSG failing to score twice. Their Champions League record is on your side, too: PSG have scored two or more goals in all three away games (at Monaco, Chelsea, and Liverpool) since the knockout phase began.
More speculative goals markets to consider include the game total of Over 5.5 (+110), Over 6.5 (+425), and — if you expect a repeat of last week’s match — Over 7.5 (+850).
- Date: Wednesday, May 6
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Allianz Stadium, Munchen, Germany
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Champions League player prop quick hits for semifinal leg 2
Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid
Bukayo Saka and Viktor Gyokeres 1+ shot on target each (-105 at Sports Interaction)
England winger Saka and in-form Gyokeres both scored in Arsenal’s 3-0 weekend win over Fulham. Saka cut in brilliantly from the left wing to find the net shortly before half, after poacher Gyokeres had been in the right place to convert an assist earlier in the match.
Saka will be keen to show what he can do as he looks to secure his place in England’s World Cup squad. Gyokeres has managed a shot on target in three of his last four Champions League starts.
As an alternative, consider backing Gyokeres in the 2+ SoT market at +175. His performance vs. Fulham was arguably his best in an Arsenal shirt.
Bayern Munich vs PSG
Harry Kane 1+ shot on target
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 1+ shot on target
Michael Olise 1+ shot on target
Ousmane Dembele 1+ shot on target
Luis Diaz 1+ shot on target
These five superstar attackers all managed a shot on target in last week’s first leg (as did three other players: Bayern defender Dayot Upamecano and midfielder Joshua Kimmich, and PSG midfielder Joao Neves).
The majority of the good scoring chances are likely to fall to attacking players because both sides prefer to systematically work the ball into the final third rather than attempt long-range efforts on goal.
An injury to any one player would scupper this five-fold selection. Given that another all-out attacking encounter is likely, however, the chances of all five players getting clear sights of goal are good.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
