Last week’s first legs served up incredible drama and entertainment: 34 goals (an average of more than four goals per game), two teams coming from behind to win, two red cards, and one shock: who had Norwegians Bodo/Glimt defeating Inter Milan, Champions League finalists less than 12 months ago?
Newcastle United’s 6-1 win at Qarabag means the outcome of that tie is a foregone conclusion, but the other seven are alive, meaning there is plenty more drama to come this week. As always, the games are played on Tuesday and Wednesday, with four fixtures taking place each day.
Here are my UEFA Champions League best bets and free betting picks for this week's knockout games.
UEFA Champions League weekly picks and best bets for Knockout Phase 1
Inter Milan vs Bodo/Glimt
Inter Milan to qualify (-125 at Sports Interaction)
The Serie A leaders need to summon all of their energy and experience to overturn a 3-1 deficit after their unexpected defeat on Norwegian soil last week.
The hosts will feel much more at home than they did in the frozen surroundings of the Arctic Circle last Wednesday. Expect Christian Chivu’s players to dominate from the outset, and to put the valiant visitors under incessant pressure.
If and when Inter take the lead, qualification will suddenly feel attainable. Back the Nerazzurri to end Bodo/Glimt’s European dreams.
- Date: Tuesday, February 24
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: San Siro, Milano, Italy
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund
Over 2.5 (-152 at Sports Interaction)
Atalanta know they need a big performance. They lost 2-0 in the first leg in Dortmund last week, so they have to win by the same margin or better to stay alive.
Daniele Palladino’s hosts warmed up in fine style, winning 2-1 at home to Serie A champions Napoli on Sunday afternoon. The fact they need to attack and take risks makes the Over the smart selection.
Five of Atalanta’s nine Champions League games and six of Dortmund’s nine have featured Over 2.5 goals, meaning the Over would have paid out in 61% of all fixtures involving these two sides in Europe’s premier competition this season.
- Date: Wednesday, February 25
- Time: 12:45 p.m. ET
- Location: New Balance Arena, Bergamo, Italy
- Where to watch: Paramount+
PSG vs Monaco
PSG to win and both teams to score (+130 at Sports Interaction)
Last week’s goal-fest ended in a 3-2 win for PSG. A similarly high-scoring game would be no surprise this week.
Monaco were crushed by losing a 2-0 lead in the first leg, but will draw hope from the fact they were able to score twice. They went a goal better in Ligue 1 at the weekend, coming from 2-0 down to win 3-2 at leaders Lens.
Monaco have averaged more than two goals a game across their last six fixtures in all competitions.
Champions League holders PSG are the better team, and should win. Given the attacking prowess Monaco have shown in recent weeks, though, the visitors should score at least once.
- Date: Wednesday, February 25
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Parc des Princes, Paris, France
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Real Madrid vs Benfica
Real Madrid -1.5 (+115 at Sports Interaction)
Real Madrid lead 1-0 from last week’s first leg in Lisbon.
It is the ideal scenario for the hosts. Knowing that Benfica need to score at least once to avoid going out of the competition, Real can sit back, invite the away team to attack, and then hit hard and fast on the break when the spaces open up.
Real Madrid manager Alvaro Arbeloa is under pressure after his side lost 2-1 at Osasuna over the weekend. That defeat saw them relinquish top spot in La Liga to arch-rivals Barcelona. This game presents the perfect opportunity to bounce back.
- Date: Wednesday, February 25
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid, Spain
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Juventus vs Galatasaray
Juventus to win and both teams to score (+265 at Sports Interaction)
Juventus need a miracle to go through. They are down 5-2 from the first leg, which explains why ‘The Old Lady’ of Italian football is as big as +380 to qualify for the Round of 16.
Whether the miracle occurs is open for debate. If they are to go out, however, Juventus will do so fighting. They will throw all they have at Galatasaray, which should make for a gloriously chaotic night in Turin.
Juventus’ last six matches have produced 26 goals (4.33 goals per game), and zero Juventus clean sheets.
- Date: Wednesday, February 25
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Allianz Stadium, Torino, Italy
- Where to watch: Paramount+
Champions League player prop quick hits for Knockout Phase 1
PSG vs Monaco
Folarin Balogun anytime goal (+250 at Sports Interaction)
Monaco’s USA international striker was their early-doors hero against PSG last week: Folarin Balogun scored twice in the opening 20 minutes, only for Monaco to lose 3-2.
Those two goals took the 24-year-old's tally in the competition to five for the season. Balogun has netted at a rate of a goal every 148 minutes, and he can score on the road: he was on target in games at Bodo/Glimt (Norway) and Pafos (Cyprus).
Juventus vs Galatasaray
Khephren Thuram anytime goal (+400 at Sports Interaction)
As they trail 5-2 from the first leg, Juventus cannot rely solely on their attackers to pull off a remarkable comeback.
Midfielder Khephren Thuram has scored only one Champions League goal in 518 minutes this season, yet the France international loves going forward, and is unafraid of shooting.
In a game where the hosts will pepper the opposition goal with shots, Thuram’s big price appeals.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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