It's been torrid for Arsenal last week in Madrid, but they survived an eventful second half to grab a draw.
This time, the finest of details should decide who reaches the Champions League last act. It's too close to call, so I'll be focusing on goals ahead of the moneyline for this much-anticipated encounter.
Here are my Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid predictions and free betting picks for May 5.
Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid picks and predictions
My Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid best bet: Under 2.5 goals (-122 at Sports Interaction)
Arsenal’s recent Champions League trend points clearly toward low-scoring games, with their last five matches all producing under 2.5 goals.
Under Mikel Arteta, the team has developed into one of the most defensively solid sides in the competition, conceding just 0.65 goals per game (24 in 37 matches), the best record among managers with at least 20 games.
Goalkeeper David Raya has been crucial, leading in both goals prevented and clean sheets (14) since last season.
Atletico Madrid already felt how hard Arsenal are to break down, and with high stakes involved, another tight, low-scoring encounter appears likely.
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Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid same-game parlay (SGP)
Julian Alvarez 2+ shots on target
Under 2.5 goals
Over 10.5 corners
Over 3.5 cards
Atlético Madrid’s Julián Álvarez has averaged a goal or assist every 80 minutes in his Champions League career (34 in 2,710 minutes, 25 goals and 9 assists). Of strikers with 20+ goal involvements in the competition, only Erling Haaland (74) has a better ratio. He was Atletico's dangerman in the first leg as well, netting their only goal. This season, he's already scored 10 goals in 14 outings, also assisting four times. I'm counting on another solid performance from him.
After the 1-1 draw last week, it's hard to see any of the two sides going all-out attack mode at the Emirates. It's unlikely to witness many goals in this battle for the final. Arsenal's previous five Champions League matches went under 2.5 goals.
The Gunners have scored the highest number of goals following corners in the English league. They look for more of the same in the Champions League. They will be looking to make set-pieces count, and I'm including the over 10.5 corners in my parlay.
To get my return to a nice +1,450, I'm counting on cards too. It's going to be heated at the Emirates, and German ref Daniel Siebert is no pushover. He averages 5.44 bookings per game in the Champions League, showing a total of 49 cards across nine encounters.
Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid odds
 Arsenal |
 Atletico Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| -161 | Moneyline | +450 |
| +290 | Draw | +290 |
| Over 2.5 (-114) | Total | Under 2.5 (-122) |
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
How to watch Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid
| Location | Emirates Stadium, London, England |
| Date | Tuesday, May 5, 2026 |
| Time | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Paramount+ |
| Weather | Light rain. |
Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid key injuries
Arsenal: Jurriën Timber (Out), Mikel Merino (Out), Kai Havertz (Out).
Atletico Madrid: José María Giménez (Out), Pablo Barrios (Out), Nico González (Out).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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