Rugby World Cup Final Picks New Zealand vs. South Africa: Titans Battle for Glory

New Zealand -2.5	-110	-108	+100
South Africa +2.5	-115	-114	-125
New Zealand ML	-140	-165	-138
South Africa ML	+110	+126	+110
Over 42.5	-110	-108	-125
Under 42.5	-115	-108	+100

Over/Under total is 41.5 at bet365

Odds as of October 26, 2023.

New Zealand vs South Africa side pick

These nations clashed twice this summer with New Zealand winning 35-20 in Auckland in July before getting hammered 35-7 by South Africa in London for a World Cup tune-up in August.

The All Blacks opened their World Cup with a 27-13 defeat against host France but have been on fire ever since. They demolished Namibia, Italy, and Uruguay by a combined score of 240-20 before edging Ireland 28-24 in the quarterfinal despite spending 20 minutes with just 14 men on the field. 

South Africa has gone 10-2 in international tests this calendar year with a 13-8 loss to Ireland in the pool stage and that previously mentioned 15-point loss to the ABs the only defeats. In a thrilling match, they knocked off host France 25-24 in the quarterfinal. However, in the areas they excelled against France, they struggled against England in the semifinal, and they were fortunate to escape with a 16-15 comeback victory. 

The All Blacks looked far more impressive in their 44-6 beatdown of Los Pumas in the semis and it's fair to ask if this squad is peaking at the right time. That said, England is a stiffer opponent than Argentina, so it's tough to criticize the Boks for a close victory where they didn't concede a try.

South Africa also played much better against England once flyhalf Handre Pollard and scrumhalf Faf de Klerk were brought in as replacements. The two halfbacks did a much better job of controlling the tempo of the game, which isn't surprising given their immense experience. Pollard and de Klerk have been moved into the starting 15 for this matchup and should provide a steady presence from the opening kickoff. 

South Africa is a team that excels in the tight spots and prefers a conservative gameplan built around their forwards. Meanwhile, the All Blacks thrive in free-flowing matches where they can rely on the pace, power, and skill of their backs. New Zealand might not be able to implement that usual style due to the weather in Saint Denis on Saturday with a 90% chance of rain and heavy winds

That should play right into the hands of a physical South African side that knows how to win ugly and loaded up its bench with a 7/1 forward-to-back split. Look for the Boks to do what they do best; control the set pieces, own the breakdown, and defend well. 

This isn't the All Blacks juggernaut we saw dominate the world in the 2010s. In fact, they've gone through a bit of a rebuilding phase under Ian Foster and this Boks side is just as good — especially in a contest that should be very forward-focused. Take South Africa with the points here. 

PICK: South Africa +2.5 (-114 at FanDuel)

New Zealand vs South Africa total pick

The truth is that messy weather will be a double-edged sword in this contest and frustrate both attacks. As mentioned, the conditions should hinder the All Blacks, who thrive when they can spin the ball to their backs and operate in open space.

However, the Springboks are a team that often kick with ball-in-hand to gain territory and also kick for points to win close contests. Making those kicks will be extremely tricky on Saturday with winds expected to gust at 27 km/h (17 mph).

Referee Wayne Barnes generally tends to encourage a free-flowing game with his calls at the breakdown, and he's no stranger to handing out cards, with six yellows in five matches this tournament (including two against NZ in the quarterfinal).

That said, there's only so much he can do with the skullduggery that these teams employ, and both sides do an immense job of defending even when down a man. Not to mention that even if penalty kicks are awarded, they'll be tough to convert from distance with the swirling winds. 

Factor in the defensive intensity that will ramp up in a match of such magnitude and the knock-ons that should result from nerves and a slick ball, and the Under is the play here. 

PICK: Under 42.5 (-108 at FanDuel)

Rugby World Cup final game info

How to bet on rugby

Betting on rugby is actually very similar to betting on football. You can bet on a side, a point spread or a total (Over/Under). The total scores are often similar to football since a try (rugby’s version of a touchdown except you literally have to touch it down) is five points and the kick conversion after is two points, for a total of seven points like a TD and a PAT. Penalty kicks and drop kicks are worth three points apiece just like a field goal. 

For a single match, you can bet on many outcomes in addition to the spread, moneyline, and total. You can also bet on derivatives, team totals, alternate lines, and props such as anytime try scorer.

Key numbers in rugby

Because of the similarities in scoring, many of the key numbers in football also apply to rugby. One main difference is that the kick conversion in rugby is not a sure thing, unlike the extra-point attempt in football. 

The kick must be taken from a point on the field straight from where the ball was touched down. If a player scores a try near the sideline then the subsequent kick must also be near the sideline, forcing the kicker to make a longer kick at a more difficult angle. For this reason, another key number in rugby is 5 (a try without a conversion). Therefore 3, 5, and 7 are your key numbers. 

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