Holmey's $$$$ Thread SATURDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 02.20.16

$$$$ THREAD CONCEPT - This thread is for all of us to share our expertise with everyone else to benefit the group.

THIS IS NOT A PICKING CONTEST!

PLEASE make special note of this! If you have an area of expertise, please make some $$$$ choices from your area of expertise when you have a game you are confident enough in to call it a "$$$$ PLAY". The difference between a PICK and a $$$$ PLAY is that a PICK is a game you like, a $$$$ PLAY is a game that you KNOW. If you are claiming your choice is a $$$$, and you really have NO true knowledge of that game, then you are just cheating us and posting your PICK just for attention and to see your name on the board.

RULES FOR POSTING - We will not track your $$$$ PLAY if you do not follow these rules. You are welcome to still post your PICK or card, but unless you do the things below, we won't be putting your $$$$ on the spreadsheet.

Only one $$$$  per day and a MAXIMUM of 4 per week. 

A week starts on Mon and ends on Sun.

- No buying points.

- No other "line-manipulations" like teasers, etc.

- No parlays

- No props

- $$$$ PLAYS need to be -129 or lower.  Anything -130 and over, take the -1.5 goals or runs.

- Do not try to cheat on lines. We, as a group, are all over the lines and every time someone gives a stinky spread, it is always called out. If the line is off, the $$$$ doesn't go into the spreadsheet.

AND THE MOST IMPORTANT RULE!

You must give an ORIGINAL explanation as to why you KNOW this $$$$ PLAY will win. And don't just "stat" us to death. Tell us about the game. DO NOT COPY YOUR WRITE-UPS! People on this thread are all over the internet and will find your plagiarism. I guarantee it. You can use Last 10, ATS, etc., numbers to support your argument, but stats from a gambling website are not an explanation.

FOLLOW THESE RULES AND YOUR $$$$ PICK WILL GET TRACKED

Thank you for your understanding and your help in keeping this thread for the benefit of everybody, not just a place for you to blather out random picks and toot your own horn.

Thread has been hot lately and the Saturday card is huge.  Let's hoot for 25 trackable $$$$'s here today.  But remember that to be tracked the $$$$ must have these things:

1.  "$$$$" needs to be prominent and obvious

2. There HAS to be an ORIGINAL and DETAILED writeup about the game, not just stats.  State are available for everyone.  Tell us why you KNOW this is a winner.  And more than just a couple blurbs like "this team is hot", "they are crazy-good at home", or "they have covered in 4-straight".  Obviously, all these factors are already incorporated in the line.  Give us something inside and insightful.

3. A line that is legit at the time of posting the $$$$

Get this stuff in your $$$$ writeup and join in trying to help everyone here win!  Thanks and good luck today everyone!

well couldn't but ky vs the Aggies at pick where can i begin

Early leans:

Quote Originally Posted by USC_Holmey:

1.  "$$$$" needs to be prominent and obvious

2. There HAS to be an ORIGINAL and DETAILED writeup about the game, not just stats.  

Duke @ Louisville Under

Idaho State (-2.5) @ Southern Utah

$$$$ Play  Miami (OH) @ Ohio -12.5

I don't have time to much of a write-up, so not making this a $$$$ play, but if you are looking for some early Saturday soccer to wager on, I love Burnley tomorrow over Rotherham.  

Well, I just spent 20 minutes on a write up and hit the back button. My $$$$ play is Pittsburgh +3.

Year to date $$$$ play record is 3-1.  Today takes me to Tampa where the South Florida Bulls (I have lived in South Florida for the majority of my life and still don't get why a university in Tampa is named USF), host the Tigers of Memphis.  My $$$$ play is on Memphis -7.5.  I watched Memphis play UCF earlier this week and they crushed them, albeit at home, by 17. Memphis played with a very well balanced attack and have those 2 horses in the front court in the senior veteran Goodwin & the freshman phenom Lawson.  Their last meeting this year on 1.16.16 was a 71-56 Memphis win at home. Don't really see much changing here.  Memphis needs this game as they have a tough week ahead playing SMU & Tulsa.

Also, there are rumblings in Memphis that Coach Pastner is on the hot seat.  The kids really like this coach and will play with extra incentive for his job, imho.  To throw in a little stat, USF is 32% ATS the last 50 games at home. Memphis has the better matchups in almost every category with the exception of FG%.

I think that Memphis wins this game going away & wins by double digits.  As always, GLTA.

Hey USC,  

Going up into Michigan to see Toledo play Eastern Michigan. May grab the Rockets -1 since they desperately need a win in order to set the stage for their game vs Ball State which could have a Divisional Title at stake!! Rockets have been better on Offense and Defense in the last 5 games. 

Rockets have only lost once to EMU in the last 4 or 5 matchups. They really need a road win here!

Hey Easy 420, are you from South Florida.  I may tail this. Thanks for the info.

- No playing ranked team against no rank.  The upset factor
- No playing away teams.  Home crowd is the 6th man factor
- No playing if their ATS record is poorer than opponent
- No Reverse Line Movement factor
- No playing if line is more than 10.  The OT can't cover factor

NC Wilmington Seahawks (20-6 SU, 13-9 ATS, 12-3 CAA, 13-9 O/U) at Charleston Cougars (16-10 SU, 9-12 ATS, 8-7 CAA, 5-16 O/U)

Wilmington played charleston before and they kicked their azz at home as a fav -8 with the score of  65 - 55 .  Now they are playing away with -2.5?  That's a huge discount for the better team. 

Wilmington is running hot with winning 11 of their previous games and their recent and last lost is to william and mary and william and mary out board and out shoot them from the stripe but that's ok.  I hunt for these embarrassing lost angle here for money when they get to play their next game and against a poorer team.  They will eat that team alive however, with wilmington, they have a habit of losing their next game after a loss. 

Wilmington has a good enough offense averaging about 80 points per game.  Charleston has a stingy defense but without an offense, how far are you going to go to win?  Charleston only put up 59 points per game.  Here's the better angle.  Charleston leading scorer Canyon Barry is out for the season with an injury.  It is like cleveland playing without lechoke. 

I know that it is not my policy to play the away team but this is a no$$$$ play so it wouldn't count anyway so here I am, playing it for my own pocket change.  I am on a 2 games winning streak and looking forward to keep the streak going. 

Wilmington is:

• 6-1 ATS last 7 road games.
• 6-2 ATS last 8 overall.
• 10-4 ATS last 14 following an ATS loss.

Charleston is:

• 5-24 ATS last 29 Saturday games.
• 0-6 ATS last 6 in series.
• 16-34-1 ATS last 51 following a SU loss.

Usc, give me Wilmington -2.5 for NO$$$$ please. 





 

Since I am playing with no$$$$, I am going to blast it with some other picks I think is good for today. 

Indiana -4 you just can't beat them at home

marshall -4.5  5th in the nation in offense 85 points per game. So fast tempo marshall against the slowest pace of old dominion

texas -5  They beat baylor earlier this year before as a dog.  No respect for texas?  They will beat them again.  Texas owned this series beating baylor 5 of the last 7.  They have beat some good teams at home too.  Slaying tex arlington, north carolina, iowa st, texas tech, west virginia.  Baylor away lost to oregon, tex am, kansas, west virginia. 

Morning fellas.  Good thread chatter to start the day.

Thanks, easy!  Good luck on the horse play!

Whoa, bk.  Careful with that.  Not sure you want to put all you eggs in one basket.......

Also, I am not sure there are two places in the U.S. more opposite than South Florida and South Dakota.

easy, did you not used to rock the Golden Gophers avatar on CBS, or am I misremembering that?

Hey easyskanker, a pip to see you post a horse today at gulfstream . Were  you on CBS down the stretch. Boy do I miss that thread . Fortunately holmey has rejuvenated the old lock club thread . By the way,  withyou on deep sea #2 in the third at gulfstram . Came up a 2-5-1 exacta box . Good luck to all . Bandit

Thanks BK, forgot to point that out.