I haven't posted an NBA game in 3 months! The time has come for a winner: Heat @ Bucks BIG WRITE-UP!

It's unfortunate you have to toot your own horn on this site, but so much vitriol and misinformation is continually spread, you have an obligation to defend your reputation.

My last three posts? Winners.

Jets +6.5 over Dolphins - Winner

Sam Smith to win Record of the year -200 (poor odds but I guaranteed it would win) - Winner

Harvard -1 (-120) over Yale - Guys who got to the post 13 hours later missed the boat on the posted line everyone had access too.

Had some pro wrestling posted winners but not many here would even understand who or what I was talking about.

So to all those "He hits 32%", up your a**.

Onto this game.

My secret to success in capping the NBA? Being selective. I started out the NFL and NBA this year by doing just the opposite to devastating consequences. Work heated up so I stopped posting. Never mind all that. I'm here to post this game.

HEAT @ BUCKS 8PM EST

I've watched the Bucks since the trade deadline and I've had an eye on the Heat.

What side are we going to take? We are going to take Milwaukee.

Why take Milwaukee?

First the bad:

1. Roster Devastation

Ever since the Bucks traded Knight for MCW, this is a COMPLETELY different team. This has resulted in a 4-13 Straight up record since the all-star break. Forget the ATS since the line makes that irrelevant.

The point? MCW cannot shoot for shi*. He is an average defender and is leaps and bounds below Knight who was this team's leader. His insertion as the starting PG is directly responsible for this team's downfall. They had to trade him because they couldn't pay Knight and he may have left anyway.

But we don't care about their downfall in general. We care about ONE WIN. TONIGHT.

We are trying to use the good 'ol tried and true Shi+ to gold theory. And right now, Milwaukee is shi+ and we'll try to turn them to gold.

So is there something, anything we can get from MCW if he is such a bad fit?

Now the good...

Well maybe, just maybe, last game Kidd has gotten through to MCW on how this team needs to be lead, all against what is the second best team in the league right now in the Cavs. 

He had 19 points, and this is the MOST important by far, on 9-14 shooting. He was the leading scorer for the Bucks for the first time since they traded him.

Believe me when I tell you that if you can get this kind of production from MCW, you may not be able to beat the Cavs (who are light years ahead of the bottom of the East) but you will be able to beat a team like the Heat.

Has he 'turned a corner' per se? We don't know. But we do know what he did last game was a very big positive.

Now the bad...

2. They lost to the Cavs by 18.

Nuff said, they were blown out at home as significant 8 point home dogs.

The good...

They lead at the half 53-44. That makes me want to bet the first half in this game. But true to my style, I am a full game capper and will stay that way.

They dominated the Cavs so thoroughly in the first half that Lebron needed to give his team a tongue-thrashing ('pep talk' in kind terms) at halftime.

7. But it was James who said they needed something to awaken them. He started by giving them a not-so-friendly pep talk in the locker room at halftime. Then, he led by example. And what an example it was.

8. LeBron put it this way: "I was frustrated with our play. I know when to press the button when need be. Tonight was one of those nights when I needed to press the button."

What does this mean? For as bad as the Bucks have been playing, their most destructive player had his best game and was their leading scorer and they actually lead the Cavs by 11 in the third before the Cavs kicked it into high gear. And this is a team that had lost 12 of 15.

Well they lost by 18 Scal so what's your point?

They threw in the towel. JR Smith was 7-9 from three. They weren't even guarding him late. Once they lost the lead they lost confidence. That's what happens with bad teams. But for almost 3 quarters, the Bucks hung tough with one of the best in the league. That's a big deal for a team near the bottom of the playoff race against the hottest team in the league.

So when you cap bad teams, you want to look for losing streaks and potential 'tipping points' and a mediocre team that is beatable. We have all those things right here.

Bucks are on a 6 game losing streak.

Bucks dropped to 34-36 last game, and further under .500 (a significant psychological benchmark for self-worth and a mark they need to back to).

They are also 1.5 games ahead of Miami and if they drop below Miami they get the Cavs in the 7th spot (and likely will be eliminated entirely).

The meaning of all this? This is a VERY big game for the Bucks. Therefore, it will not be taken lightly. They are staying home after a very tough 3 game stretch vs. San Antonio (the second hottest team in the league, Brooklyn (who was in a huge revenge spot against their former coach who beat them on their home floor in 3 OT the previous game) and the hottest team in the Cavs. The Heat compared to those spots are like comparing a meal a Michelin 3 star restaurant to a Swanson's TV Dinner.

Ok now for some more good news.

1. Bucks are 3-0 vs. Miami this year.

This is a completely different team with Knight so you can respond 'So what?'. Well guess what? With only 12 games remaining, even if the Heat beat the Bucks, the Bucks will hold the tie-breakers with the Heat regardless. 1.5 games up may not seem like a lot but if the Bucks can win straight up, they can gain a strangle-hold on the 6th spot, further avoiding the Cavs and be 2.5 up on the Heat with 11 to play. That's not great, but it's MUCH better than being .5 game up, being on a 7 game losing streak and facing tougher teams ahead.

Again, this is a VERY big game for the Bucks and they have no travel and stay at home after the Cavs game and are a small home dog. All in our favor.

Now, onto the Heat.

Their schedule is very important for this game.

They play the Bucks and then the very next night, they play the team breathing down their necks, the Celtics. The Heat are 2-1 against the Celtics this year, the Celtics also being 1.5 games behind them.

So a win against the Bucks gives them no tie-breaker advantage and a win against the Celtics locks up all tie-breakers at 3-1. Having said that, the Heat can still try to beat the Bucks and jump to the 6th spot but one game is a bit more important than the other given the tie-breakers.

Result? This is definitely a 'mini' look-ahead spot for the Heat given the Celts are on deck (And I say mini, because every game for the Bucks and Heat are big right now).

Now here is the one thing that is bothering me about this game to offer a counterpoint.

If anyone remembers last year, I played an angle that the Hawks were intentionally dogging it (as stated by Ferry to the media). They went out and blew the doors off the Cavs off those reports which were featured nationally in the New York Times. That game cost me quite a bit.

Here's the issue. Something similar (although on a much smaller scale) is going on in the media here.

Spolestra is getting accused of 'dogging it' when it comes to certain games and certain teams to set himself up in a certain way for playoffs...if they make it.

This article explains it all:

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-heat/sfl-miami-heat-erik-spoelstra-s032015-story.html

So this is sort of the angle that burned me since I embraced such an angle. I'm not embracing it here like I did against the Hawks but I am bolstering my point with the 'mini lookahead' talk. So that makes me a bit nervous. But I'll have to live with it. Everything can't be perfect. And I don't like my situational spots to be absolutely perfect because I'll go too large and I could lose big time. So in a way, I'm glad there's an annoying wrinkle here in this cap.

Fun fact: Kidd is 7-0 vs. the Heat as coach in the regular season (0-4 in the playoffs of course).

Now to the line: It's now +1.5 Bucks on 5Dimes. Wow. Opened at 1 and is now rising. So this puts us in a nice little home dog spot. This line tells me Vegas thinks the public thinks the Bucks have absolutely no shot to win this game. 1.5 is essentially a ML with a sliver of padding. A 34 win team at home in a must-win in danger of dropping out of the playoffs completely vs. a 32-37 team. Yes the Heat have the better roster and Wade and now Dragic but the Bucks can dig deep like they did in the first half vs. the Cavs. Folks, the Heat were playing quite well before they got their heads bashed in by OKC but this is a much tougher spot than they think and they may underestimate who they are playing and how they will play.

Lose this game as the Bucks and you get the Pacers (desperate for any kind of win), Golden state, @Altanta, @Boston Orlando, Cleveland. They may get 1/2 wins at most there and hang on for dear lives until the end of the year (which gets soft but it might not matter) making this game loom mighty large.

We didn't wait 3 months to post a loser. We're gonna trust in Kidd to motivate this team to bring us home; to motivate them to level where he was once in the coach of the year conversation (this was a 14 win team last year). It'll be close but we get points as home dogs so it won't matter. We need a quick start out of the gate just like the Cavs game and MCW needs to shoot the ball halfway decent:

The pick:

BUCKS +1.5 over Heat

Im with you on this one

Still 1.5 as I type, but you are right, you might even nab 2.

Trust me, I know how much of a disaster Milwaukee is right now.

I'm just looking at the remaining schedule and I loved what I saw vs. the Cavs. They had LBJ and crew on the ropes and then Lebron kicked it into a gear like he was playing in the finals. In no way is that final score indicative of how the Bucks played Sunday, hence, I believe they are finally ready to break through with a win (among many other reasons).

Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

Scal, the triple revenge does not bother you? Not sure you can overlook a team that beat you 3 times. Even the sorry Nets finally broke through against the Bucks (though the Bucks had 20 or so more rebounds  and were playing like their lives depended on it).

It does.

And ya know what BB, the most surprising win maybe I've ever experienced as a Nets fan (outside of the fact they won the Eastern Conference Finals twice which today is unfathomable), was their win over the Heat last year as Miami was in a triple revenge spot as well (on the ROAD as big dogs too). No one thought the Nets could sweep the regular season from Lebron and Co.

Coincidentally (and it's only a coincidence it's Kidd vs. the Heat here which is good 'juju' at a minimum), we have the same coach vs. the same team, but this game now goes beyond revenge.

The Bucks need this win or they will immediately be in danger of dropping out of the playoffs with the Heat ready to leapfrog them and the Hornets/Pacers/Celtics (and Kidd's worst nightmare, the Nets) coming after the 7th and 8th spot.

It's about getting a win period, (for both teams really but the Heat need a win a bit more against the Celts than the Bucks) and all the revenge the Heat want to have will dissipate if the Bucks can start out fast like they did against the Cavs.

MCW was a leader for the first time on the Bucks last game against the best of the best. He can carry over something against the Heat who can really be putrid at times.

And if the Bucks can get a nice lead, perhaps, even with the article rumors, Spolestra won't drive his guys into the ground knowing a very important game also looms 24 hours later (with travel).

This is just about blood and guts and a win and the last remaining playoff spots (and avoiding the Cavs which I'm not even sure the Heat want to do!), and a sweaty Bucks player giving a post game interview saying how they really needed to get this one and did.

For me, the triple revenge dissipates given that. It's there...but it's not in other ways.