NBA BREAKDOWN Wed 03/23 (12 games)

Nets @ Cavs +3.5 O/U: 191.5

Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games and will be missing D-Will again in this one.  This team is 12-21 ATS on the road and 9-22 ATS versus losing teams.  Cavs are actually 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games.  This team is 13-20 ATS at home and 13-17 ATS against losing squads.  Cavs are in a revenge spot in this one as they are 1-2 versus the Nets this year.  Last game against Cleveland, as -9.5 favorites at home, Nets only won by 2 points.  Keep in mind that Davis is doubtful for the Cavs, but even so this might a good spot for those ‘brave’ enough to back Cleveland as a home dog.  The O/U in the previous 3 games were:  195.5 (U), 193.5 (U), 194 (O).  This posted total is the lowest of the 4 meetings.  Both teams are missing some key players and both are actually playing better D lately.  Leans:  Cavs and the UNDER.

Pacers @ Bobcats OFF

Stephen Jackson’s injury is keeping this one ‘off the board’.  Bottom line is that this is a huge game for both teams.  Bobcats must win this game.  If they lose, they will be down 3 games and their season will pretty much be over.  I expect the Pacers to get Charlotte’s best effort in this one.  Bobcats had 3 days off to get ready and they have ‘triple-revenge’ in this one(Lost by 3 at home, by 8, and by 1)  On the road, Pacers are 12-25 SU / 15-20 ATS.  Bobcats are 17-16 SU at home and 15-17 ATS.  Last game, Pacers were -4.5 point favorites at home.  I’d expect the Bobcats to be about -2/-2.5 point favorites in this one tonight.  O/U is 2-1 this year:  197.5 (O), 193 (U), 195.5 (O).  Both teams are rested and I expect this O/U to come out closer to 193.  Leans:  Bobcats and the UNDER.

Heat @ Pistons +8.5 O/U: 198

Triple-revenge game for the Pistons, but not sure how much of a factor that is here.  Last game took place in Detroit and the Heat blew out the Pistons by 14 points as -8 point favorites.  Both teams are rested coming into this one and are playing pretty well from the ATS standpoint in the last 6/7 games.  One thing to keep in mind is that Miami’s next game is the 2nd Cleveland visit of the season for LeBron and Co.  The O/U’s in previous games:  191.5 (U), 189.5 (U), 189.5 (O).  Now the total is released 9 points higher.  Hmmm.  Detroit isn’t playing any D lately, so that might be the reason for this increase.  Leans:  Pistons and OVER

Grizzlies @ Celtics -7 O/U: 189

Everyone knows that Memphis has been an ATS ‘darling’ this year.  On the road they are 22-14 ATS and 24-12 ATS revenging a loss.  Boston beat them by 6 as a -3.5 road favorite.  With SA you’d expect this line to be around -9.5 but it’s at -7.  Hmmm….  Celtics are actually 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games and are coming off a big ‘come-from-behind’ victory in NY.  Obviously this is a big game for Boston as Bulls are again ½ game ahead of them.  The O/U was 196 in the previous meeting, which cleared by 30 points to the OVER.  Now the total is at 189.  That’s a big difference.  Hmmm…. Celtics have played 7 straight games to the UNDER, while the Grizz are 3-1to the UNDER in their last 4 games.  Leans:  Grizzlies and PASS on the total.

Hawks @ Sixers -6 O/U: 190.5

I’ve already talked in detail about Atlanta’s woes against ‘quality’ opponents.  This team might be a good ‘FADE’ the rest of the way when they’re facing a club with a .500+ winning percentage.  The Sixers are 21-12 ATS at home and 18-12 ATS against winning teams.  This is the Hawks’ 3rd game in 4 nights, while the Sixers are playing their first game after a 5-game road trip.  Philly has a game against the Heat on tap.  Atlanta is actually 2-1 against the Sixers this season, and even though Philly won the last meeting in a convincing fashion, I’m pretty sure they’ll want to even out the series with this game.  The O/U’s were:  193 (O), 192.5 (U), 192 (O).  Neither team is playing ‘stellar’ D lately.  Leans:  Sixers and OVER.

Jazz @ Thunder -10 O/U: 202

Utah Jazz lost a big game @ Memphis a few days back, and for all intents and purposes, I believe their season is over as they’re 3 games out of the final spot with 11/12 games to go.  This team is not playing any D whatsoever and is only 3-10 ATS in the last 13 against ‘quality’ opponents.  Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games and are coming off a really bad home loss to the ‘Craptors’.  They’ve had 2 days off prior to this one, and I would expect them to come out and play hard tonight, as this team is 8-4 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite.  Keep in mind that Favors and Harris are both doubtful for the Jazz.  The O/U’s in 3 previous meetings:  202 (O), 208 (O), 206.5 (O).  With the type of D that Thunder is playing right now and with unmotivated Utah team, I’m wondering how this one will not stay UNDER.  Leans:  Thunder and UNDER.

Kings @ Bucks -8.5 O/U: 194.5

Kings are just going through the motions right now, as this team completely abandoned playing any defense lately.  Bucks are actually still fighting for a playoff spot and even though this team is tough to back on the road, they are 6-0 ATS at home in their last 6 games.  In the first meeting, the Bucks were -2 point favs on the road, winning that game 84-79.  Kings are actually 4-1 ATS in Milwaukee, their last 5 games and the road team is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  The O/U was 185 in that first meeting, with the UNDER covering by 22 points.  Even though the UNDER is 2-0 in the last 2 games in Milwaukee between the 2 teams, I can’t help and notice that Bucks aren’t playing as stout defense lately as they’re capable of.  Leans: Bucks and OVER.

Magic @ Knicks +1 O/U: 202.5

At first glance this seemed like a ‘steal’ for the Magic to get this short # against the fading Knicks.  But on second look, Orlando is only 13-21 ATS on the road and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games, even though they are 5-2 SU in those.  This team is finding ways to win, and one must wonder if the bookies finally under-valued them.  Knicks are 1-6 ATS and SU in their last 7, as this team stopped playing defense altogether.  This is a ‘double-revenge’ game for New York.  Need to check the status of Arenas and Reddick for this one.  The O/U’s in the previous 2 meetings were:  213.5 (O) and 212 (O).  Now the total is at 202.5.  Hmmm.  Will this be a low-scoring slug-fest?  The books certainly think so.  Leans:  Magic and the UNDER.

Warriors @ Rockets -8.5 O/U: 216

The Warriors just don’t seem to be very motivated these days, especially on the road.  This team is not playing any defense (giving up 7 ppg more in their last 5 than their season average)  and are 0-5 ATS on the road in their last 5 games.  In addition, this is the last of a 4-game road trip for them, so I’m sure this squad is looking to get home.  Also, there are rumors that the HC and Stephen Curry aren’t seeing things ‘eye to eye’ so to speak.  Facing  a Houston squad that is actually putting more of an emphasis on the defensive side won’t be easy (giving up 9 ppg less in their last 5 games, than their season average).  The Rockets are 2-1 against the Warriors this year and will be looking to go 3-1.  The O/U’s were:  216.5 (O), 216.5 (U), 213 (O).  The Warriors have played 3 straight to the UNDER, while the O/U is 1-3 in the last 4 meetings in Houston.  Leans:  Rockets and PASS on the total.

Raptors @ Suns -9 O/U: 209.5

The Suns are coming off a tough triple OT game @ LA (as I’m typing this, the result is not decided yet).  Today will be their 3rd game n 4 nights, as this team had to travel back home as the Raptors are already waiting in Phoenix.  Toronto is 13-17 ATS on the road while the Suns are 14-20 ATS at home.  In the first meeting, Suns were -3.5 favs and won by 18.  Raptors have a pretty horrible ATS record in revenge scenarios this year though.  The O/U in that game was 214 as it stayed UNDER due to Suns playing really solid D at that time.  This is a tough scheduling spot for this veteran club and with a triple-OT game last night, will they have the legs to play D?  Leans:  Raptors and the OVER.

Spurs @ Denver -3.5 O/U: 210.5

Spurs will be without Duncan here as Denver will be missing Afflalo.  Felton should be back but he is listed as questionable.  The Spurs are only 4-8 ATS after the break against winning teams, while Denver is 11-3 ATS in the same scenarios.  The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in Denver in the past 5 meetings here, but this is a ‘triple-revenge’ scenario for the Nuggz as they lost all 3 meetings so far this year.  Will Denver improve to 15-1 ATS with this win or will their 7 game ATS streak come to an end?  The O/U’s were:  211 (O), 212.5 (U), 209.5 (U).  Without Duncan in the middle and with Spurs’ lack of defensive intensity lately, I would expect this to be a fairly high scoring game.  Leans:  Denver and the OVER.

Wizards @ Clippers OFF

The Wizards just got shellacked by the Blazers last night and now must play their 3rd game in 4 days against  arrested Clippers squad.  Wizards have a ton of injuries and are forced to play inexperienced players.  Clips, on the other hand, have gotten healthier by getting Eric Gordon back into the mix.  The previous meeting between the teams was won by LA as they blew out the Wiz by 19 as a -2 point road favorite.  Will they repeat this performance, or continue their ATS slide, which sits at 0-4 in their last 4 games?  O/U was 201 in the first meeting.  I would expect this total to open lower, as Wizards have really be struggling to score points lately and Clips are well rested in this one.  Leans:  Clippers and the UNDER.

Quote Originally Posted by 702underdog:

Good stuff Bodio! Cavs and Thunder looking good to me

Thunder -- yes!  But Cavs is an automatic pass for me.  Can't 'gamble' with a crappy squad like that....

Alright fellas.  Good night

Back in the morning with my official plays. 

Quote Originally Posted by CrazyMilkMan:

First time I checked you out man and we pretty much have the same cards. Goodluck bodio.

Keep in mind, these are NOT my final plays.  These are just very 'rough' leans as I cap every game in detail.  My final card is posted in a separate thread (will be tomorrow morning).

Good luck buddy!

Quote Originally Posted by mtbaker:

Sixers

Hawks an 'automatic' fade against .500+ teams the rest of the way?  I THINK SO!

Alright...good night fellas