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NFL 2007-2008 season...

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Captain
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Joined: Sep, 2005
Posts: 5456
Posted: #1
Hey everyone ,
 
I hope you all had a successful off-season!
It is time to welcome this new year :
 
Are you ready for some football..??!!
 
 A wealth of information  , both statistical and analytical is shared weekly by many cappers and all this hard work is much apperciated.
Everyone befenifts on this community in the end.
 
I will continue to support this site and bring forward
any information I believe can be of use to others.
 
On a personal note , I am coming off a good NFL season but as alwaysI look back with a critical eye to reinvent myself and look for improvements , and I see many to be made.
 
I will continue the Trends & Things thread as it was well received and brought good stats together under one roof.
Some examples:
 
I am considering tweaking the trend pick of the week
by making only an underdog selection weekly.
More on that later...
 
 
If interested , we will have a second half contest for the NFL though I may change the format to a straight
picking contest of between 2-3 picks weekly.
 
Your input is appreciated.
A full year contest was provided by Joe public that mimicks the Hilton contest, I suspect he will run it again.
 
I wil continue to make a POW that may be
include a game being played on sunday or Monday.
 
 
On most Sundays , I will have other selections as well.
I have had great success over the years making MNF selections , none better than last year as I went 15-2
 
So I will most likely make at least one pick for MNF
That being said , there is nowhere to go but down.
I would gladly take 10-7 though !
 
I will tighten up my unit selection to a more narrow range.
That being said , I am not afraid to increase my units if I get on a good roll or find myself comfortably ahead .
But , I did lose a couple of big unit plays LY...
and while those were made with realized profits ,
I will thread carefully TY
 
 
Cheers !
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Hall of Fame
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Joined: Jan, 2006
Posts: 25392
Posted: #2
Good to see you back Roberto.
 
GL this year!
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #3
2007 record : 0-0
Preseason pick :
 
Cincinnati @ Detroit
 
Pick : Cincinnati + 3  ( 3 units )
 
 
 
 
Banned
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Joined: Jan, 2007
Posts: 1681
Posted: #4
welcome back
 
Rookie
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Posts: 806
Posted: #5
i like it too.....
 
Captain
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Posted: #6

 

  1. Home teams as favorites against better (G/A/P class) prior year teams are just 51-77 (40%)
  2. Home underdogs versus an opponent of the same or worse prior year win class are 26-13 (67%)
  3. In week one, POOR prior season teams are an amazing 8-18 (31%) at home against POOR or AVERAGE away teams
  4. In a game of winless sides, playing the underdog in the matchup (and consider a pick'em game to have the home side as the underdog), yields a 104-72 record (59%)...and 82-59 (58%) in week one.

 
Captain
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Posted: #7
  • Good -- teams with a 10 or more wins in the prior regular season
  • Average -- teams with 7 to 9 wins
  • Poor -- teams with less than 7 wins

 

 
All-Star
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Joined: Jun, 2007
Posts: 13464
Posted: #8
i just joined this year but i remember reading your posts last season....looking forward to seeing them again
 
best of luck this season  
 
All-Star
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Posted: #9
ggod luck roberto
 
Prospect
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Posts: 19
Posted: #10
Great to see you back this year. I made a lot of money tailing you on your MNF picks last year. Best of luck to you this year
 
Captain
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Posts: 6975
Posted: #11
good to see you back. love the stats you compile.
 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #12
Let there be no mistake about it. Roberto is one of the top NFL cappers on this board.
 
 
All-Star
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Posts: 10350
Posted: #13
Welcome back Roberto.
 
Captain
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Posts: 6525
Posted: #14
 glad to see you back RF, great season last year as you easily established yourself as one of the top cappers here with your pix and info...BOL this season and will watch closely.
 
Nice win to start out as well, was on the over myself 
 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Jul, 2006
Posts: 202
Posted: #15
Welcome back RF. Looking forward for a great season with your picks and insight! Great start for the season with Cincy.
 
MVP
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Posts: 16017
Posted: #16
GL Roberto, nice to see you back
 
All-Star
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Posted: #17
nice hit on cincy
 
Captain
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Posted: #18
nice start roberto 
 
Banned
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Posted: #19
good to see ya back
 
Banned
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Posted: #20
 roberto
Spottie2935 on socials
 
Banned
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Posted: #21
Rf, right back to where you left off with another winner
 
Captain
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Posted: #22
Looking Forward To A Great Season
 
Captain
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Posts: 5456
Posted: #23
Thanks everyone
& best of luck to you on this coming season !
 
Consider these angles >>>
 
  1. Home teams as favorites against better (G/A/P class) prior year teams are just 51-77 (40%)
  2. Home underdogs versus an opponent of the same or worse prior year win class are 26-13 (67%)
  3. In week one, POOR prior season teams are an amazing 8-18 (31%) at home against POOR or AVERAGE away teams
  4. In a game of winless sides, playing the underdog in the matchup (and consider a pick'em game to have the home side as the underdog), yields a 104-72 record (59%)...and 82-59 (58%) in week one.

 

  • Good -- teams with a 10 or more wins in the prior regular season
  • Average -- teams with 7 to 9 wins
  • Poor -- teams with less than 7 wins

 

Based on these numbers ...

Take a look at Kansas City @ Arizona tonight

My play will be on Kansas City ...........

Kansas City @ Cleveland

Play : Kansas City + 3  ( 2 units )

Best Of Luck ...

 


 
Captain
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Joined: Dec, 2006
Posts: 5108
Posted: #24
Good luck, Roberto.  I remember your "Trends" threads from last season 
 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Jul, 2006
Posts: 25
Posted: #25
Cool Nice Play !!
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