The Eastern Conference Final heads back to the Lenovo Center for Game 5 between the Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes on Wednesday, May 28.
Carolina blanked Florida 3-0 on Monday to stay alive, and my top NHL picks for the Sebastian Aho odds are calling for the Finnish centerman to pick up an assist in Game 5.
Sebastian Aho player prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Sebastian Aho best bet
Over 0.5 assists (+110 at Sports Interaction)
Carolina Hurricanes No. 1 center Sebastian Aho has collected eight assists and been on the ice for a healthy 4.17 goals and 4.57 expected goals per 60 minutes this postseason. He’s driven possession with a 58.5 Corsi For percentage and 56.4% shot share while winning the expected goals battle at a 52.4% clip.
While line juggling can always creep up, Aho centered wingers Andrei Svechnikov and Seth Jarvis during Game 4, and the trio was dangerous. They tilted the ice in their favor to the tune of a 92.3 CF% and 97.6 xGF%.
With the last-change advantage on home ice, I expect Carolina head coach Rod Brind'Amour to find creative ways to turn to his three best scorers tonight.
Additionally, expecting Florida Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky to maintain his .950 save percentage deeper into the series is asking a lot. He’s already saved 5.62 goals above expected, after all.
I like Aho and the Hurricanes to push this series back to Sunrise with a Game 5 win.
Sebastian Aho same-game parlay
Sebastian Aho 2+ shots on goal
Hurricanes moneyline
Under 5.5
Aho recorded seven shots on 11 attempts in Game 4, and he’s had a multi-shot showing in eight of 14 postseason games to tie for the team lead with 38 total.
Carolina bounced back in Game 4, and I’m anticipating the Hurricanes staving off elimination again with a home-ice victory after winning the 5-on-5 possession and expected goals battles with a 55.5 CF% and 52.9 xGF% through four games in the series.
Of course, Carolina has also won 36 of its last 47 games at the Lenovo Center.
I’m also anticipating this to be a low-scoring game. As highlighted, Bobrovsky is dialed in, and the Hurricanes received a 20-save shutout from Frederik Andersen in Game 4.
There also hasn’t been significant offense or scoring chances at 5-on-5 through the four games. Florida and Carolina have combined for just 13.94 expected goals and 61 high-danger scoring chances.
The five power-play goals and two empty-net tallies have driven the final scores up during the series.
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